Via the NYT: S&P 500 Surges Through Trump Turmoil to a Record High.
The rally began on April 9, when Mr. Trump delayed his administration’s steepest tariffs until July. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen more than 23 percent, despite continued challenges like inflation and a war in the Middle East.
This just underscores what I have repeatedly noted: investors don’t like his tariffs, and the markets keep demonstrating this fact.
It seems noteworthy to note the trendline coming into the administration and that the dip on the graph was due to turmoil created by Trump’s various tariff threats.
I suppose the question now is, will he reengage in his mercurial approach to tariff policy, or will he just let it ride?
I will note that there has not been the promised cavalcade of deals. On that topic, see Reason: 90 Deals in 90 Days? Trump’s Trade War Is Failing on Its Own Terms.
“We’re going to run 90 deals in 90 days,” Peter Navarro, the White House’s top trade advisor, told Fox Business on April 12, shortly after Trump paused those tariffs—ostensibly to allow negotiations to take place.
It’s been 76 days since then, and there have not been 76 new trade deals. Not even close. The actual tally is two, and that’s only if you count the “framework” deals with China and the United Kingdom—neither of which amounts to a full trade deal at the moment.
On Thursday, the Trump administration officially backed down from the “90 deals in 90 days” posturing. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the early July deadline for re-implementing those paused tariffs was “not critical.” Whether the paused “Liberation Day” tariffs return in early July is “a decision for the president to make,” she added.
For the record, I do not count the frameworks as actual “deals.”
For those who are interested, the Atlantic Council has a Trump Tariff Tracker. Note that the kinds of products (i.e., tech) that make up the bulk of growth in the S&P Index are exempted from Trump’s tariffs.
None of this is any way to run economic policy.
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Author: Steven L. Taylor
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