Vast Majority Of Americans Favor Negotiating With Iran As Democrats Fail To Capitalize On Uncertainty And Fall In Congressional Ballot Survey

By Manzanita Miller  

Despite a flurry of reports from the mainstream media warning of President Donald Trump’s stagnant approval ratings due to tense relations between Israel and Iran, polling shows that the American people largely support Trump’s approach to negotiations with Iran.  

What is more, Congressional Democrats have been unable to gain momentum against conservatives even in the midst of global political uncertainty, and losing their advantage to Republicans according to generic Congressional ballot data.    

First, Americans agree with the overarching view President Trump has asserted with regard to the standoff between Israel and Iran —  Americans agree Iran should not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, and Americans say the United States should negotiate with Iran in order to prevent it from acquiring them.    

A YouGov survey from June 20-23 finds that by an overwhelming 40 points — 59 percent to 19 percent — Americans say the United States should negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. 68 percent of Republicans, 51 percent of independents and 58 percent of Democrats say the U.S. should negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. The same survey finds just three percent of Americans believe Iran should be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.  

Voters also said in a June 23 YouGov survey that they believe after the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites the nation would require “years”, not days, months, or weeks, to compete a nuclear weapon.   

A separate YouGov poll from June 24 found that Americans say by two points — 38 percent to 36 percent — the U.S. should take an active role in world affairs. Voters show support for President Trump’s attempt to broker peace in the Middle East, although voters do not support entering a war there.

While the prospect of entering a war with Iran understandably ranks extremely low in popularity for the American people, if President Trump is able to negotiate longer-lasting peace between Israel and Iran that could significantly bolster public confidence in Trump’s approach, bestowing potential tailwinds for conservatives in the midterm cycle. 

As the data stands now, Congressional Democrats have been unable to leverage the climate of political uncertainty for their own benefit and are falling further behind Republicans. A new survey from the Napolitan News Service and RMG Research conducted June 18-19 shows Congressional Republicans with their strongest lead yet against Democrats this year, leading Democrats by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent.  

The survey shows a drastic swing toward Republicans since late May, when the same research group found Congressional Democrats ahead by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent. By these metrics, Republicans gained seven points in just over a month, while Democrats gained one, and the share of undecided voters presumably dopped.

While the Napolitan News Service survey is admittedly an outlier — a Real Clear Polling average shows Democrats ahead by a historically modest 2.4 points which has been the case for over a month now — it does indicate that Congressional Democrats are having a difficult time gaining ground against President Trump and Republicans even in a politically rocky environment.    

One reason? Nearly two-thirds of Democrat voters say they want the entirety of their Congressional leadership replaced, largely due to neglecting the economic issues they care about and prioritizing social justice issues instead.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released June 19 found Democrat voters assert by a 38-point margin — 62 percent to 24 percent — that the party should replace Democrat leaders with new leaders. The survey also found double-digit gaps between the policy priorities Democrat voters say they want Congressional Democrats to focus on, and the priorities they say party leaders are focused on. 

This survey comes just weeks after a CNN survey conducted by SSRS found Americans said by a strong 24-point margin that they believe the Republican Party, not the Democratic Party, is the party of strong leadership. A full forty percent of Americans say the GOP is the party of strong leadership, while only 16 percent say the same for the Democratic Party.   

There are those who believe the United States will be dragged into a war, there are also likely interests that would like to see this happen. There is also the somewhat credible theory that if the United States were dragged into an unpopular war in the Middle East — yet again — that the party in power would lose favorability among voters. That said, while President Trump has been unequivocal in showing strength and proving that the United States will act if peace is disrupted, Trump has said repeatedly that his goal is peace in the Middle East and positive relations with every nation.  

When speaking about the ceasefire he brokered, President Trump said in a Truth Social post: “On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.’ This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”  

By this account, and President Trump’s frequent calls for peace and accountability from both nations, Trump wants to broker peace, not enter another war. But as Americans for Limited Government Executive Director Robert Romano recently pointed out, Trump used strength to make the point that if peace is disrupted, there will be a penalty. How a possible — and ideally  completely avoided — war could impact confidence in Trump’s approach or the midterms remains to be seen, but Trump is focused on peace, and Congressional Democrats are gaining no ground even in an environment of political uncertainty.

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

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