Israel ‘Achieved Its Objectives’ in Iran Operation, Says Leading War Studies Think Tank

A leading war studies think tank has assessed that Israel “achieved its objectives” in its recent operation against Iran’s nuclear program.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report on Tuesday explaining that, in the 12-day operation, “Israel achieved its objectives vis-a-vis the nuclear program by destroying nuclear facilities and enrichment capacity with US support and killing key nuclear scientists who were instrumental in the development and weaponization of the program.”

ISW, in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the details and implications of the conflict in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.”

Israel launched a broad preemptive attack on Iran earlier this month, targeting military installations and nuclear sites across the country in what officials described as an effort to neutralize an imminent nuclear threat. Over the next several days, Israeli forces systematically dismantled Iran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile capabilities, destroying much of the infrastructure and killing top military leaders and nuclear scientists.

The US on Saturday night joined Israel’s campaign by bombing three key Iranian nuclear sites, before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire to the conflict between the two Middle Eastern adversaries that went into effect on Tuesday.

Debate has raged this week over how extensive the damage was to Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially in the wake of the US bombings.

In the immediate aftermath of the strike, Trump declared that the Iranian nuclear facilities were completely destroyed. However, CNN and other media outlets subsequently reported on a leaked preliminary assessment from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, which found that key elements of the nuclear program were not destroyed and that the strikes only set the program back a few months.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth lambasted the fact that the “top secret report” was leaked, adding that “it was preliminary; it was low confidence.” Trump and other senior administration officials have similarly dismissed the findings of the DIA report, saying that the Iranian nuclear program has been decimated.

ISW indicated it believes the US and Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites were successful.

“The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself,” the think tank wrote in its Iran Update published on Wednesday. “The Institute of Science and International Security, a nuclear nonproliferation think tank that has long studied the Iranian nuclear program, assessed that it was very likely the strikes destroyed or damaged most of the centrifuges at Fordow on the basis of the impact locations and the effects of the blast waves.”

The Institute of Science and International Security said in its own report that although there are “non-destroyed parts [of the Iranian nuclear program] … [that] can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium,” the US and Israeli attacks “have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.”

Meanwhile, Israeli assessments found that “significant damage” was done to the nuclear sites. Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said that based on the assessments of senior military intelligence officers, the damage “is … systemic … severe, broad and deep, and pushed back by years.”

The Israeli Atomic Energy Commission added that “the devastating US strike on [the Iranian nuclear site Fordow] destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes … have set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.”

Axios reporter Barak Ravid noted that Israeli officials were reportedly “perplexed by a leaked US intelligence report that suggested otherwise.”

Ravid also reported that an Israeli official with direct knowledge of intelligence on Iran told Axios that “intercepted communications suggest Iranian military officials have been giving false situation reports to the country’s political leadership — downplaying the extent of the damage.”

Then, in a new assessment on Wednesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said the strikes had “severely damaged” Iran’s nuclear program. He explained that they had gained additional intelligence since the initial DIA report. “This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years,” Ratcliffe wrote.

The central goal of the Israeli campaign, known as Operation Rising Lion, was to disable Iran’s nuclear program, ISW explained. And this main effort was supported “by conducting a campaign designed to prevent Iran from conducting effective retaliatory strikes on Israel by degrading its ballistic missile capabilities.”

“The IDF sought to limit Iran’s ability to respond to Israel at the start of its campaign and continued to destroy Iranian missile launchers and stockpiles throughout the air campaign,” ISW wrote. “Iranian leaders originally planned to launch up to one thousand ballistic missiles at Israel in the immediate aftermath of an Israeli strike, presumably in multiple barrages. The first Iranian missile barrage included about 30 missiles, and Iran never managed to launch over 40 ballistic missiles in a single barrage throughout the 12 days of attacks.”

This aspect of the operation, likewise, was a success. ISW reported that over the entire two-week operation, Iran fired a total of only 543 missiles, of which 89 percent were intercepted (and many that were not intercepted hit open, not residential, areas).

Still, “Iranian ballistic missiles did penetrate Israeli air defenses striking populated areas in some instances, however. Air defense systems are not perfect, and some projectiles will penetrate the system.”

Additionally, the missiles Iran used were not particularly helpful in a military sense. “The relatively poor accuracy of these missiles compared to a precision-guided munition means that even in instances when Iranian missiles struck military targets, they were largely ineffective and caused no casualties and limited damage,” ISW noted.

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