International Man: Israel and the US have recently initiated their long-anticipated war with Iran.
How do you see it unfolding, and what consequences might follow?
Doug Casey: Anything anyone says may be overtaken by events an hour from now. This is an ultra-fluid situation. If the Three-Body Problem has become famous for its unpredictability, we’re dealing with something like a Twelve Body Problem here.
The consequences of the unprovoked US attack on Iran are completely unpredictable on one level—but totally predictable on another. Among the many unpredictable parts is whether the Iranians will close the Straits of Hormuz and/or the Red Sea entrance to the Suez. Will they seriously attack the numerous US bases around them? Or proceed to build or buy some nukes to counter Israel? How will Iran—quite justifiably at this point—retaliate in any of a hundred different ways? Exactly how does the US/Israel expect to win without invading?
The only predictable part is that the attack moves the world closer to going all-out in WW3.
It’s odd that Iran has been painted as a terrorist state. Why do I say that? The fact is that Iran’s conflict has been solely with Israel. It’s clearly supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen—but those groups only attack Israel, for their own reasons. Iran has—notwithstanding the US Embassy incident in 1979 coincident with the overthrow of the Shah, a US puppet—never attacked the US or anyone else.
What about “Death to America”? It’s just stupid, counterproductive rhetoric, on a par with the late Senator John McCain’s moronic chants of “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.” At least up until Saturday’s unprovoked attack, Iran presented absolutely zero threat to the US.
In fact—and I know this will enrage reflexively nationalistic readers—from an objective point of view, the US can be seen as a terrorist state. The US Government is constantly invading and overthrowing regimes and assassinating leaders—scores of times since WW2, usually in pitiful little nothing/nowhere Third World shitholes. Trump is the one making violent threats. Israel killed, maimed, or seriously wounded about 3400 Lebanese with boobytrapped pagers in their war with Hezbollah. And, of course, its one-sided war against Hamas in Gaza has killed 60,000. You’d think the Israelis might say, “Enough, already”…
However, at some point, the shoe might be on the other foot. Some group or regime may counterattack by massively assassinating US officials. Or attacking US bases with drones, much the way the Ukrainians did in the heartland of Russia. These are technically very easy feats. Both the US and Israel are playing with fire.
International Man: Public opinion in the US has shifted notably. Support for Israel has declined, especially among younger Republicans.
Congressman Thomas Massie conducted an informal poll on X, where 85% of respondents opposed the US providing weapons to Israel.
What’s your take on this shift in public sentiment?
Doug Casey: Maybe a lot of people have heard that, for many years now, the US has given Israel about $4 billion a year in aid, plus weapons. Americans don’t approve of putting a foreign government on welfare. That’s in addition to another $4 billion to Egypt, bribing them to be Israel’s BFF.
Meanwhile, Trump has been acting like a schizophrenic. He makes a point of not being sure what he’ll do, back and forth, on and off, all the while threatening and name-calling like an adolescent. The world’s greatest negotiator? Hardly. No sensible person can take him seriously. And only a fool tries to negotiate with a bully who threatens violence.
The situation is greatly complicated by the US relationship with Israel. Is it the 51st state of the Union? Many seem to think they’re at least our ally—which is ridiculous. They’re an extremely costly liability. Israel acts only in Israel’s best interest. They bring nothing to the party. They’re using the US as a patsy and playing it for a sucker.
And although American Jews overwhelmingly support Israel, Israel isn’t helping their cause. It’s not just what’s going on with the universities, where there’s lots of anti-Jewish sentiment. The antics of Kanye West have underlined how Jews seem to control politics, business, finance, law, academia, entertainment, and the media. It’s no wonder the average American thinks that about a third of the US population is Jewish, when in fact, there are only about 6 million or so American Jews, which means they’re about 2% of the population. Maybe I shouldn’t observe that. It’s the “third rail” for what’s left of free speech in what’s left of America.
It’s not about Jews, per se. The majority always resents it when a small group seems to sway a country’s direction. Much the same thing has happened with blacks. Americans are also experiencing “black fatigue.” Most Europeans who haven’t been to the US, as well as anyone who watches TV commercials, think that the US is about 50% black and most couples are biracial.
International Man: Historically, false flag operations have been used to justify involvement in unpopular wars.
How likely do you think such a tactic is today, especially to build support for another war in the Middle East?
Doug Casey: What’s going on now is an unprovoked attack from Israel and the US. It’s a purely offensive war. Of course, the Israelis justify this by saying that the Iranians are on the point of developing nuclear weapons, but they’ve been saying that for the last 30 years.
The fact is that practically any country in the world can develop nuclear weapons. It’s an 80-year-old technology. And the Israelis are in no position to speak since they’re said to have a nuclear arsenal of about 200 bombs. Even the North Koreans, one of the world’s most poverty-stricken shitholes, have bombs. Anybody can have them and likely will. Why is Iran a special case? Should Israel be censured for threatening to use the “Samson Option” if it seems they’re losing a war?
But, to answer your question, it’s always better to fabricate an atrocity so you can play the victim. The Japanese did that before they invaded China in World War II. The Germans did that in Poland before they invaded. It’s a reliable gambit.
Our friend Michael Yon (link) has asserted that of the 10, 20, or 30 million migrants that are wandering around the US, there are likely a couple of un-uniformed but well-organized armies among these young, military-age men. They can be activated in what amounts to a guerrilla war. And who’s to say that one of these groups wouldn’t attack the US from within and claim to do so on the part of Iran?
International Man: If the war doesn’t unfold as Israel and the US intend, what might the broader geopolitical implications be? Could this accelerate the decline of US hegemony and the rise of a multipolar world?
Doug Casey: Now that the US is actively involved—as opposed to just supporting Israel with money and weapons—we have a lot to lose. It would be a gigantic embarrassment on the scale of Vietnam or Afghanistan.
On the other hand, if the US “wins” and Iran collapses, the place could fall into civil war. Most of Iran is Persian. But Iranian Kurds might split off to join the Kurds in Syria, Turkey, and Iraq to form a new nation-state.
There are lots of imponderables. Is the average Iranian sick of the mullahs who’ve been in charge for the last 45 years? Undoubtedly, lots of Iranians are. But the Big Satan’s attack might unite Iran the way only a war can. Will the Republican Guards take over? “We” don’t know what’s going on in Iran, as evidenced by Tulsi Gabbard, who is head of the US intelligence community, saying that we have no indication that Iran has a nuclear weapon or is moving toward one. Then Trump says he doesn’t care what she says, whereupon she recants. I guess his buddy Bibi gave him the straight scoop.
Or maybe Ted Cruz—I pity the poor fool for his appearance on Tucker Carlson—is advising Trump.
One thing is for sure: when the US sticks its nose into the business of countries on the other side of the world, it always ends badly, just as it did with Iraq—which it transformed from a military power into a chaotic failed state. Or Libya, which our unprovoked attack turned into two countries at war with each other. Or Afghanistan, where we conducted an unprovoked invasion, killed a few hundred thousand peasants, spent a couple of trillion dollars, and 20 years later left the Taliban in charge, as it was before the US invaded.
International Man: What are the potential economic and financial consequences of the Israel-Iran war—particularly regarding inflation, energy prices, national debt, and the financial markets?
Doug Casey: If the US and Israel create chaos in Iran, is the US going to be on the hook to rebuild it? For that matter, now that Israel has destroyed Gaza, is the US going to relocate the Gazans and rebuild Gaza? As Saudi Prince MBS’s phony alignment with Israel destabilizes Saudi Arabia, will we have to invade them, too? I think the answer may be “yes” to all those questions.
The fact is that the Muslim world dislikes, fears, and distrusts what they call “the Zionist entity.” They feel Palestine was invaded by Zionists starting with the first Aliyah 125 years ago and that the place was conquered demographically, economically, politically, and militarily. It’s nothing new. I expect white Californians will feel like Palestinian Arabs in a couple of generations.
There’s no point in rehashing the pros and cons of both sides here. This is a massive replay of the feud between the Hatfields and the McCoys in West Virginia. Taking sides is idiotic. I simultaneously wish them both well, with a pox on both their houses. The only solution is complete non-intervention by the US.
Editor’s Note: Doug Casey’s analysis makes one thing clear: we’re entering a period of extreme volatility—economically, politically, and globally.
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It’s called “Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse.”
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