As the Texas political landscape shifts, incumbent Senator John Cornyn finds himself in serious trouble with MAGA in his bid for re-election in the 2026 Republican primary. Recent polling data indicates a significant threat from conservative Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is making waves among GOP voters.
The Poll

According to a poll conducted by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard for the Educational Freedom Institute, which was highlighted in a report by Punchbowl News, Paxton holds a commanding lead over Cornyn. The poll results suggest that 50 percent of Republican primary voters intend to support Paxton, while only 28 percent favor Cornyn. This 22-point deficit raises alarms for Cornyn, a senator who has maintained his seat since 2002. Patrick Flavin, a professor and interim chair of political science at Baylor University, told outlets that Cornyn’s position is concerning given the high name recognition of both candidates. Flavin elaborated, “His polling deficit is not because voters are unfamiliar with him. Both candidates had overall positive favorability ratings among Republican primary voters, but Paxton’s stood at 65/22, compared with Cornyn’s 48/37.”
MAGA’s Power

The timing of this polling comes as Texas gears up for a highly contentious election cycle. Democrats see a glimmer of hope in flipping this Senate seat, marking it as pivotal in their strategy to reclaim a Senate majority. With President Donald Trump’s influence with MAGA looming over the Republican Party, the landscape is evolving, fostering strong divides within the party. Flavin notes, “Cornyn is probably suffering from what’s a larger issue in Texas politics, which is the divide in the Republican Party between a more Trump-supporting version versus a more traditional, business version.”
The Uphill Battle

Cornyn’s campaign faces an uphill battle as he attempts to appeal to more conservative voters who may lean towards Paxton, a figure emblematic of the MAGA wing of the party. With the primary just months away, Cornyn’s team believes that by highlighting Paxton’s ongoing legal and ethical controversies, they may sway voters once the full picture of Paxton’s record is understood. Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser for Cornyn, vehemently dismissed the negative poll results, referring to it as a “silly season for polling” and claiming it “doesn’t pass the smell test.”
Can MAGA Sway the Election?

The primary battleground is particularly charged, not only because of inter-party rivalries but also due to the election’s significance. Trump, who remains neutral at the moment, has provided tacit support for both candidates. He has stated, “I like Paxton, I like Cornyn, they’re both good people. So, I’ll make a decision somewhere along the line.” With the primary scheduled for March 2026, Cornyn still has months to change the narrative of this race. However, the early signs are troubling. The poll surveyed 600 Republican primary voters from May 27 to May 28, 2025, capturing a snapshot of a critical moment in Texas politics. With a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, concerns about Paxton’s growing support are palpable.
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Author: Joshua Wilburn
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