Oil prices drop after Iran’s failed attack and ceasefire

Oil markets exhaled on Monday, June 23, 2025, as Iran’s limp missile volley at a U.S. base in Qatar fizzled out, sparing lives and triggering a ceasefire.

The Daily Wire reported that Iran’s attack on the Al Udeid Air Base, preceded by a warning to the U.S., was intercepted entirely, leaving no casualties. Oil prices, which had spiked 6% after Iran’s threat to choke the Strait of Hormuz, plunged 7.2% to settle at $68.51 a barrel. This followed a brief surge past $78 when tensions flared.

The drama began when President Donald Trump announced a U.S. bombing of an Iranian nuclear facility, prompting Iran’s reckless Strait of Hormuz threat.

Roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil flows through that narrow choke point, so markets understandably twitched. Iran’s bluster, though, proved louder than its bite.

Iran’s Attack Falls Flat

Iran’s missile barrage, meant to flex muscle, was a dud—every projectile was swatted down by U.S. defenses. The preemptive warning to the U.S. suggested Tehran wanted theater, not war. This half-hearted jab barely rippled the sand at Al Udeid.

Trump called Iran’s response “very weak,” claiming it was expected and “effectively countered.” His confidence underscores a broader point: Iran’s saber-rattling often masks a weaker hand. The regime’s nuclear ambitions took a hit, and this attack was more tantrum than strategy.

“Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities,” Trump said, framing the U.S. strike as a decisive blow.

His choice of “obliteration” is classic bravado, but it resonates with Americans tired of Iran’s endless provocations. Still, de-escalation, not chest-thumping, steadied the markets.

Hours after Iran’s failed strike, Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This swift diplomatic pivot cooled oil markets faster than a desert breeze. Markets, ever skittish, began to stabilize as traders bet on peace holding.

“Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’” Trump said, suggesting Iran’s aggression was spent. His optimistic spin might oversimplify, but it signals a desire to move past tit-for-tat strikes. The ceasefire, if it holds, could keep oil prices grounded.

The Strait of Hormuz, briefly under threat, remains open, ensuring 20% of global oil supply flows uninterrupted.

Iran’s failure to act on its threat exposed its bluff. Markets hate uncertainty, but they love clarity—even when it comes from a dud attack.

Oil Prices Reflect Relief

Benchmark U.S. oil’s 7.2% drop to $68.51 reflects relief that Iran’s attack didn’t escalate. The earlier 6% spike, driven by Hormuz fears, now seems like a fever dream. Traders are pragmatic—they’ll take peace over panic any day.

Iran’s nuclear facility bombing sparked the initial market frenzy, as investors feared a wider conflict. Trump’s decisive action, while risky, appears to have deterred further Iranian escalation. Critics of “woke” diplomacy might argue this strength prevented a broader war.

The ceasefire announcement was the real market mover, signaling de-escalation to investors. Israel’s involvement, though not detailed, hints at broader regional buy-in. A stable Middle East, even briefly, is a win for global energy markets.

Markets are expected to stabilize in the coming days, assuming the ceasefire holds. Iran’s track record, though, suggests skepticism is warranted—Tehran’s promises often come with asterisks. Still, for now, oil flows and prices ease.

Trump’s leadership, blending force with diplomacy, has calmed this storm, but the region remains a tinderbox. The anti-woke crowd might cheer his no-nonsense approach, contrasting it with progressive hand-wringing over “escalation.” Yet, empathy for all sides—American, Israeli, even Iranian citizens caught in this mess—demands hoping peace sticks.