Trump tariff critic changes tune, suggests president may have ‘outsmarted’ naysayers

When President Donald Trump took a hardline stance on trade earlier this year and announced sweeping tariffs on countries across the globe, skeptics everywhere hit the panic button.

As the Daily Mail reports, however, the Treasury Department’s coffers are now swelling as a result, with a staggering $37.8 billion in revenue having poured in from duties imposed in the months of April and May.

Revenue boom follows tariff imposition

In April, the federal government took in $15.6 billion from the Trump tariffs, a start that some critics of the plan viewed as predictably lackluster.

However, in May, the tally grew by 42%, reaching $22.2 billion, in what was arguably a signal of vindication for the president’s strategy.

According to data from the Bipartisan Policy Center, the first five months of 2025 saw tariff and excise revenue of $68.9 billion.

That total represents an increase of 78% from the same period in 2024, with the bulk of the funds coming in the wake of Trump’s groundbreaking tariff announcement, in which most goods were hit with a tariff of at least 10%, but in many cases, much higher, NPR notes.

Critics still contend that the boon is not all it appears, given that the tariffs are being paid by businesses and, eventually, consumers, but not everyone agrees.

Former critic changes tune

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, once slammed Trump’s tariff plan, but now suggests that the president may have “outsmarted” his critics all along, as Fortune explains.

In Slok’s estimation, a scenario could unfold in which Trump’s tariffs are extended for a sufficient amount of time to ease economic uncertainty while simultaneously boosting federal revenue to a beneficial degree.

Slok suggests that tariffs could be kept below the president’s most aggressive floated rates for a period of time that is long enough to prevent long-term economic damage.

He theorized, “Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade” and offer an opportunity to “reduce uncertainty, giving a boost to business planning, employment, and financial markets.”

“This” he said, “would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for U.S. taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs, and U.S. tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”

Not alone

As Fortune notes, it is not just Slok who is backing away from the “sky is falling” take on Trump’s tariffs, with Chris Harvey of Wells Fago Securities suggesting that tariffs will likely settle in the 10%-12% range.

Such a result, he said, would bring tariffs low enough not to wreak devastating harm, leaving him bullish on Wall Street all at the same time, seemingly giving credence to the theory that perhaps Trump really has outsmarted all the Chicken Little naysayers.