‘Nothingburger’ NATO summit still packs policy punch

NATO leaders are expected to gather in the Netherlands on June 24 and 25 for what some policy watchers are already calling a “nothingburger” summit. But behind the stripped-down agenda lies a debate that could reshape defense spending across Europe.

A stripped-down agenda and some serious side dishes

The NATO summit in The Hague could bring in as many as 6,000 attendees. However, expectations are somewhat low. A virtual briefing hosted by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) outlined the pared-down nature of the summit’s agenda.

“The summit itself is a bit of a nothingburger,” said Jan Techau, senior fellow at CEPA. “They’ve gotten everything out, including the Russia strategy that was supposed to be written. That was to keep the peace. Ukraine is almost completely out of this summit now.”

Spending takes center stage

Still, there is one major issue on the table: military spending.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier in June that every alliance member will meet the long-standing benchmark of spending 2% of GDP on defense in 2025. However, U.S. President Donald Trump’s long-held position that NATO members need to do more to defend themselves is driving a push to increase the spending benchmark. The White House is now floating a more ambitious goal of 5%.

Some European governments are skeptical. Spain has already said the 5% goal is out of reach. But the proposal may not be as rigid as it sounds.

As currently proposed, the 5% could be split into two parts:

• 3.5% for traditional defense spending
• 1.5% for dual-use technologies, such as cyber defense and telecommunications infrastructure

“They are now in their European capitals trying to figure out how they’re going to thread that needle of being able to make the commitment, but also make the accounting work when every single nation has to make trade-offs against what is generally unpopular: massive increases in defense spending,” said Jason Israel, a senior fellow at CEPA.

Israel said the Trump administration deserves credit for the substantial increases in commitments and proposed spending target. He said the tactics employed were “different,” and there are questions about whether they were necessary, but they did produce results.

“You do hear those in European capitals praising at least the numbers,” Israel said, “and the fact that they’re going up.”

Air and missile defense top the tech wish list

As part of new capability benchmarks, most of which are classified, air and missile defense is expected to dominate the discussion.

“We cannot ignore the drone, cruise and ballistic missile attacks Russia is levying upon Ukraine,” said Lance Landrum, a CEPA senior fellow. Landrum said the U.N. secretary-general made it clear in a recent speech that a 400% spending increase on air defense is expected.

During that same speech at Chatham House, Rutte also said NATO members will likely be buying thousands more armored vehicles, millions of artillery shells, hundreds of F-35 joint-strike fighters and additional warships as well. Rutte said it’s all needed and more if NATO wants to deal effectively with today’s evolving threat landscape.

Ukraine Is still in the room, just not at the center

Even though Ukraine isn’t on the main agenda, discussions around Russia’s war will continue. While NATO heads of state dine with Dutch King Willem-Alexander on Tuesday evening, June 24, foreign and defense ministers will meet separately to address Ukraine and other regional threats.

The summit comes amid ongoing concerns about the durability of U.S. support for Ukraine, particularly as American aid is set to expire later this summer.

The bottom line is NATO’s summit may not have the sweeping agenda many had hoped for, but with new defense spending goals, a sharpened focus on missile defense, and quiet diplomacy around Ukraine, it’s far from irrelevant.