Bari’s Picks of the Week: Will We or Won’t We?

We’re a little over a week into the Israel-Iran war. As of this writing, it appears the Israelis have the situation well in hand. As our Niall Ferguson put it in an interview with the BBC: Israel’s strikes on Iran have been “a crushing defeat” for the Islamic Republic and a “decisive victory for the West.”

The big question now is whether Donald Trump will help them finish the job.

Trump might still be able to shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue without losing any support. But he might not be able to blow up Fordow without inciting a meltdown inside MAGA.

While we wait to see what Trump will do—the president is now saying he might take “two weeks” to make a decision—let’s take a look at the civil war on the right that’s already unfolding.

The Right Goes to War With Itself

Trump unveiled a new nickname this week, labeling longtime ally Tucker Carlson “kooky Tucker” after the former Fox News commentator repeatedly warned that a war with Iran would rip the MAGA coalition asunder. “I’m a little kooky,” Tucker messaged our Gabe Kaminsky shortly after. “I’ll concede that.”

Tucker is not alone in threatening Trump with a full-scale revolt if he attacks Iran; he’s joined by the likes of Steve Bannon and influencers like Jack Posobiec. Meantime, Mark Levin is going full bore with his attacks on “Chatsworth Qatarlson.”

So which way will Trump go? And will MAGA survive the aftermath?

Read Gabe with the definitive piece here:

Gabe’s piece pairs nicely with this one from our Peter Savodnik, who takes a look at the emerging far-right/far-left alliance to stop American involvement. There aren’t many issues that draw together lawmakers as ideologically disparate as MTG and AOC, but they see eye to eye when it comes to Iran. Read Peter on how Iran is warping partisan lines in Washington—and maybe a few brains as well.

Our Eli Lake also had a fantastic discussion with Dan Caldwell, a USMC vet who served as a top adviser to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The two had a lot of healthy disagreements about what the U.S. should do.

We also published a great piece from Andrew Roberts, the esteemed Churchill biographer and member of the House of Lords, who argues that Trump should do what old Winston would in this situation: engage in “opportune ruthlessness” to put “the world on a safer path.”

So: What’s Niall Ferguson Saying?

Niall Ferguson—my friend and your favorite—has been all over our pages and livestreams this week. And why wouldn’t he be? Nobody can place a contemporary issue into the grand sweep of history quite like Niall. And the accent is to die for. Agree with him or not, you’re going to want to check out everything he did with us this week.

I’ll start off with his livestream with me and Dexter Filkins, one of the great war reporters of our time. I promise this was a million times smarter than any analysis you saw on TV this week—or anywhere else for that matter. Watch it now if you haven’t already.

Niall also co-authored a piece with former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant arguing that the U.S. needs to step in and lay waste to Iran’s big nuclear enrichment mountain in Fordow.

Want more Niall? Of course you do. Here’s a Q&A with him we published this week where he discusses everything from Trump to our enemies abroad to his own conversion to Christianity.

The View from Over There

So how are the people of Israel, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon reacting to the war? As our Matti Friedman writes, Israelis—famous for their political feuding and fractious debates—have rallied to the flag and behind Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. It’s an absolute must-read piece on life in Israel during war time.

Meanwhile, our Tanya Lukyanova—in partnership with our friends at the Center for Peace Communications—took a look at how everyday people in the wider Middle East are responding to the conflict and which side they’re rooting for. Here’s how one Syrian man put it: “If Israel wants to bomb Iran for another 100 years—we’ll cheer.”

In Other News

We also had a load of fantastic pieces that had nothing to do with the war. Our Olivia Reingold, who has been covering the New York City mayoral race better than anyone, talked to some of the pillars of the city’s tax base about the possibility of socialist Zohran Mamdani. What will they do if he wins? (In a word: Florida.)

And our Frannie Block and Madeleine Rowley had an amazing story on what happens when ICE raids an American company, in this case a Nebraska meatpacking plant. It’s a perceptive look at this country’s long-broken immigration system and the many victims of its dysfunction.

Before We Go . . .

Thursday marked Juneteenth—the day news of the Emancipation Proclamation reached Galveston, Texas, weeks after the Civil War ended. Coleman Hughes had a tremendous piece for us on what he learned teaching the legacy of slavery at the University of Austin, and how American high schools are still teaching the subject all wrong.

It’s going to be a hot few days here in the northeast. Thankfully, we’ll have more than a few reasons for you to stay in and enjoy the AC, including a piece by H.R. McMaster and Suzy Weiss’s much-loved culture column.

Stay cool, everyone. And have a wonderful weekend.