In the turbulent world of American politics, few names are as polarizing as GOP Senator Lindsey Graham. The South Carolina Republican’s political career has been marked by various ups and downs over the years with voters and other elected officials.
As he gears up for a fifth term in the 2026 elections, recent polling suggests a storm brewing on the horizon for the seasoned politician.
The Poll
According to a Winthrop University poll conducted from May 23 to May 31, Graham’s approval ratings paint a sobering picture. At 34 percent, his numbers lag significantly behind fellow Republican figures such as Donald Trump at 45 percent, Governor Henry McMaster at 42 percent and Senator Tim Scott at 41 percent. This widening gap suggests that Graham may be more vulnerable than ever in the state.
The importance of Graham’s seat cannot be overstated. With 33 of 100 Senate seats being contested on November 3, 2026, maintaining a strong GOP presence in South Carolina is critical for the party. Twenty of the seats up for grabs are currently held by Republicans.
Analysts are closely watching the shifting political landscape as Graham prepares for the imminent challenges ahead.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Polling data came from a sample of 1,211 South Carolinians, with a margin of error of 2.82 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.
While the survey captures the general population rather than just likely voters, the implications for Graham’s campaign could be significant.
Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop Poll, noted that the polling might indicate that Graham is “certainly more ripe [for a challenge] than any of the others, say, Tim Scott would be.” He suggested Graham’s victory in the past may not guarantee safety for the coming race: “He’s done it before, even when he was less popular than other statewide Republicans.”
Graham’s Campaign Responds
Graham’s previous win in 2020 against Democrat Jaime Harrison was by a margin of 10 points, but the political winds have shifted since then.
Huffmon remarked that statewide and national issues — largely out of Graham’s control — could play pivotal roles in the GOP senator’s future. Tariffs, for instance, may be contentious, but Huffmon acknowledged, “Graham is an expert at reading the landscape.”
Abby Zilch, press secretary for Graham’s campaign, disputed the poll’s methodology, emphasizing that “what good is a political poll that doesn’t survey likely or even registered voters?”
Zilch stood firm on Graham’s connection with the electorate, stating, “South Carolina voters trust the America First agenda, and Senator Graham remains one of its fiercest defenders in the U.S. Senate.”
A New Name in the Race
The emergence of a new Democratic challenger, Annie Andrews, adds more uncertainty to Graham’s political future.
Andrews, a physician with previous electoral experience, is entering the race after losing to Republican Nancy Mace by 14 percentage points in 2022.
“The more effective you are in helping enact President Trump’s agenda, the more Democrats want to take you down,” Zilch declared, framing Andrews as pushing a “radical liberal agenda that is out of touch with South Carolina.”
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Author: Joshua Wilburn
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