How Will Iran Retaliate Following Israeli Strikes?

Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Facilities and Long-Range Missile Capabilities in Latest Strikes

Israeli strikes that commenced late Thursday evening and targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and long-range missile capabilities have left the global community asking: what’s next? Israel, for one, expects retaliation.

“Following the State of Israel’s pre-emptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future,” Minister Israel Katz warned his population.

Iran Warns ‘Severe Punishment’

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel will face a “severe punishment” over the attacks after state media confirmed top Iranian military officials and scientists had been killed in the strikes.

“With this crime, the Zionist regime has set itself for a bitter and painful fate and it will definitely receive it,” Khamenei said in a statement.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also vowed revenge.

The attacks “will not remain unanswered and [Israel] must await harsh and regrettable revenge”, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in a statement broadcast on state TV.

IDF Launched ‘An Aerial Campaign Against Iran’s Nuclear Program’

Emmanuel Fabian, The Times of Israel’s military correspondent, reported that the Israeli Defence Forces had launched “an aerial campaign against Iran’s nuclear program”.

“Dozens of targets across Iran related to the nuclear program and other military facilities are being struck by the Israeli Air Force,” he said, noting that the operation is called “Strength of a Lion”.

“The IDF says Iran has enough enriched uranium to build several bombs within days, and it needs to act against this ‘imminent threat’.

“Sirens that sounded across Israel a short while ago were a pre-emptive warning issued by the IDF, ahead of a possible reaction by Iran.”

‘Israel Will Pay Heavy Price,’ Says Iran

“The armed forces will certainly respond to this Zionist attack,” added Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for the General Staff of Iran’s armed forces.

“(Israel) will pay a heavy price and should await a strong response.”

But what will that be?

Tehran Could Lash Out ‘Unpredictably,’ Experts Say

Beyond compelling Iran to re-evaluate the security surrounding its vital nuclear facilities, which are situated in various undisclosed locations across the country, the nation’s leadership is reportedly weighing various avenues for retaliation.

While United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Washington had no direct involvement in the recent strikes, some experts warned that Tehran could lash out unpredictably — which left the world on edge and much of the West on war footing.

Among the potential retaliation strategies being discussed reportedly included proxy warfare, according to the Jerusalem Post. Iran is known to maintain a robust network of allied militant groups in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a myriad of militias operating in Iraq.

These groups, despite suffering losses in recent conflicts, still possess capabilities that could pose a threat to both Israeli and American interests within their sphere of influence.

Iran Could Leverage Its Influence to Conduct Coordinated Attacks on Israel or Its Allies

“A reality check is necessary here,” explained one Middle East security analyst. “The weakened state of these proxies does not mean they are non-existent threats. Iranian-backed groups have access to advanced weaponry, including long-range attack drones and ballistic missiles.”

Experts cautioned Iran could leverage its influence to conduct coordinated attacks on Israel or its allies, using these proxies to act on its behalf while maintaining plausible deniability.

Iran’s Arsenal of Ballistic Missiles and Drones Further Complicates Threats

Further complicating the ominous threat of retaliation is Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones.

Iran has reportedly developed a sophisticated range of weaponry capable of striking Israeli territory. Past satellite reconnaissance and military intelligence indicated that the precision of these missiles has markedly improved, thanks in part to collaboration with strategic partners including Russia. 

“As history dictates, Iran has previously used ballistic missiles and drones to assert its presence,” said a regional defense expert stated. “With the right diplomatic and logistical maneuvering, it can mobilize these assets effectively against its perceived adversaries.”

Iran’s Naval Capacity Presents Additional Layers of Complexity

Furthermore, Iran’s naval capacity — often characterized by smaller vessels and asymmetrical warfare tactics — presents additional layers of complexity.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has successfully launched operations in the Persian Gulf, targeting commercial shipping vessels in previous years.

The possibility of employing such tactics to disrupt maritime activities or retaliate against perceived threats from Israel cannot be understated, experts warned.

“In the past, we have seen them employ ships and aircraft creatively; the use of drones, for instance, could expand their operational sphere,” said a defense analyst.

Iran is Known to Maintain a Robust Network of Allied Militant Groups

The Iranian government has also demonstrated its willingness to engage in foreign terrorist operations historically, utilizing third-party operatives to target Israeli interests worldwide.

Reports have suggested Iran possesses extensive networks through entities like Hezbollah, capable of executing sophisticated plots across Europe, South America, and various Asian countries.

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