When the Congressional Budget Office reported that the Republicans’ “big, beautiful” reconciliation bill would boost deficits and throw millions off insurance rolls, it was treated as gospel truth.
The CBO is, after all, a “non-partisan” agency, staffed by just-the-facts-ma’am budget and economic experts who don’t have any axes to grind.
Maybe that’s true. But it’s not partisan bias that is the problem. It’s the CBO’s terrible track record when it comes to predicting the impact of tax and health care policies.
By the CBO’s accounting, the House reconciliation bill would cut tax revenue by $3.7 trillion and cut spending by $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years, resulting in deficits that are $2.4 trillion larger than they’d otherwise be.
To make matters worse, the proposed Medicaid spending cuts would throw nearly 11 million people off insurance rolls, according to the CBO.
That combination just happens to make for the perfect Democratic talking point – “Republicans want to cut taxes for the rich at the expense of the poor!!” – which is why its new forecasts are front-page news. And when the White House suggested that the CBO’s projections were biased, the mainstream press rushed to the CBO’s defense.
But wait a second. These are 10-year projections. They are based on a raft of assumptions about incredibly complicated systems.
So, the important question is, just how good is the Congressional Budget Office at making such predictions?
The answers are easily found, although you’d never know it based on the media’s total lack of interest.
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Author: Ruth King
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