Ukraine drones strike serious blow to Russian war effort

Ukraine’s recent drone attack on Russian military assets is not decisive, but it does suggest that Putin has met his match with President Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine.  This is another example of the clever and resourceful Ukrainians doing something not thought possible.  You may recall repulsing the Russian juggernaut heading to Kyiv at the start of the war … the sinking of Russian warships (including the flagship “Moscow”) … invading and occupying land inside Russia … knocking off top military leaders on Putin’s turf.

The latest surprise may be the most dramatic and serious of all.  In a special operation dubbed “Spider’s Web”, 117 low-cost Kamikaze FPV drones were deployed in a coordinated attack on air bases throughout Russia.  This was in addition to the approximately 350 drones fired into Russia that day – spanning several hours and multiple regions.  Russia claims to have neutralized 162 of them. 

The drones involved in Operation Spider’s Web were successful in hitting major airbases across Russia, including Belaya Airbase (Irkutsk Region), Olenya Airbase (Murmansk Region), Ivanovo Airbase (Ivanovo Oblast) and the Dyagilevo Airbase (Ryazan Region).  Two of those airbases were thousands of miles from the Ukraine/Russian border.

It is estimated that 41 of Russia’s military aircraft were either destroyed or severely damaged.   Most significant were the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 nuclear-capable bombers, and the A-50 reconnaissance planes critical to major operations — including nuclear.  It has been reported that Russia lost one-third of its strategic bomber fleet and a third of its strategic cruise missile carriers.

The destruction of these aircraft has significantly weakened Russia’s ability to conduct long-range missile strikes.  While Russia maintains the world’s largest nuclear inventory, these strikes have reduced its operational capabilities.

Many of the drones were smuggled into Russia and launched from trucks.  Reports also suggest that some of the drones may have actually been manufactured inside Russia.  The existence of a pro-Ukraine underground was seen in the growing number of sabotage attacks on railways, bridges and military assets – and the killing of top-ranking military officials – inside Mother Russia.

The successful attacks have proven the effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone warfare strategy.  The FPV drones are smaller than Ukraine’s longer-range UAVs.  The FPVs are harder to detect.  That was proven since the current round of attacks was conducted in broad daylight. Though smaller and cheaper, the FPVs have proven their ability to attack deep inside Russia.

It is particularly noteworthy – and should be particularly concerning to Putin – that these weapons were produced and deployed solely by Ukraine.  They were not provided by the United States or NATO nations.

The recent attack may only be a precursor of things to come.  Ukraine plans to produce up to 10 million drones annually.  As of 2025, Ukraine is already producing between 2.5 to 3 million drones per year, with monthly production reaching 200,000 units.  If Ukraine can do what they did with 117 drones, imagine what they can do with millions of them.

Then there is the morale factor.  The scope and effectiveness of the attack is a huge embarrassment to Putin – and he has a public that is starting to show signs of war weariness.  Having drones attacking neighborhoods throughout Russia will not help Putin’s public relations.

He will most certainly try to save face by ramping up missile attacks on Ukraine – especially on Kiev, Kharkiv and Odesa.  After that, what?  Another humiliating response at the hands of Ukraine?

The cost of the lost military assets is a major factor – estimated to be in the $7 billion range.  Russia is already overstretched in terms of funding the war.  Putin is fast reaching an inability to keep the war going based on cost alone. More sanctions and another drop in international gas prices and Putin’s problem becomes a crisis. Russia’s economic woes are already impacting on the people – in addition to the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russian men.

While there has been no progress in reaching a ceasefire or peace agreement along Trump’s line thanks to Putin’s recalcitrance, this attack should prevent any progress for the foreseeable future.

In the David versus Goliath war in Ukraine, it appears that David is doing surprisingly well.

So, there ‘tis.

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