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Consensus Snapshot
- Q2 EPS Estimate (GAAP): $1.04
- Revenue Estimate: $1.428 billion
- EBITDA Estimate: $192 million
- YoY Revenue Growth: +4.2%
- Dividend Yield: 3.3%
- EBITDA Margin: ~13.5%
Street expectations reflect modest top-line improvement but continued pressure on operating leverage. The $1.428B revenue estimate implies slight YoY growth, helped by more stable resin pricing and less pricing erosion in the Global Industrial Packaging segment. EBITDA is pegged at $192M — down from peak 2023 levels but likely sufficient to maintain dividend coverage and conservative leverage.
EPS of $1.04 would mark sequential improvement over Q1 ($0.90), but still well below the $1.34 posted in the year-ago quarter. Analysts have trimmed estimates steadily over the past six months, so sentiment is tepid — but the bar is low. A modest beat combined with solid cash conversion could shift the narrative from defensive to selectively constructive.
Greif (NYSE: GEF) heads into its Q2 FY2025 earnings with a muted setup. While shares have modestly rebounded over the last month, they remain in a year-to-date drawdown following weaker-than-expected results across the past three quarters. The packaging and containerboard manufacturer has struggled with volume softness in its core rigid industrial segment, especially in chemicals and agriculture-linked verticals. At the same time, Greif continues to post solid free cash flow, maintain a 3%+ dividend yield, and exercise cost discipline — key reasons institutional investors have stayed engaged.
Management has consistently positioned GEF as a low-beta, cash-return story with strategic pricing power and operational resilience. But after multiple earnings misses, the narrative is now on trial. This quarter is less about beating top-line estimates and more about re-establishing credibility on volume inflection and cost stability. Any sign that global demand is stabilizing — particularly in Europe or the Americas — could support the valuation re-rate investors have been waiting for.
Greif’s investor base is income-focused, so dividend sustainability and capital discipline remain core pillars. But the next leg of upside likely requires evidence that paperboard and containerboard markets are recovering, allowing volume/mix leverage to return to the model.
The post Greif Inc. (GEF) Earnings Live: Stock Hunts Redemption in Punishing Climate appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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Author: Joel South
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