BARK Inc. (BARK) Earnings Live: Turnaround in Sight but Stock Under Scrutiny

BARK’s risks center on two structural challenges: subscale economics and cohort fragility.

First, while revenue has stabilized, BARK remains below the scale needed to fully leverage its fixed cost base. Even with positive EBITDA this quarter, cash flow generation remains fragile. If growth slows further, or if CAC creeps higher during customer acquisition ramp-ups, it could erase progress toward breakeven.

Second, churn has historically been high, particularly in first-year customers. If retention doesn’t improve — or if customers begin skipping deliveries — the company’s LTV-to-CAC math quickly breaks down. This would pressure marketing ROI and could force BARK to increase promotions or discounts, eroding margin gains.

A third emerging risk is channel complexity. As BARK broadens into physical retail, the company must balance logistics, inventory allocation, and brand positioning between DTC and wholesale. Misalignment between channels could introduce customer confusion or supply-side inefficiencies. In the current funding environment, any missteps in execution could amplify cash burn and increase financing risk in FY26.

• Are customer cohorts improving in retention, LTV, and frequency? 
• How meaningful are contributions from Petco, Walmart, and Amazon? 
• Is gross margin scaling in tandem with EBITDA — or lagging? 

The most important question this quarter is whether BARK’s subscriber base is turning into a compounding engine — or merely treading water. The company’s strategy hinges on moving from “volume growth” to “value growth,” meaning that each new cohort delivers higher gross profit and lower churn over time. If recent changes in box customization and upsell logic are working, that should show up in net revenue per subscriber and year-one cohort retention.

Additionally, investors will be closely tracking wholesale and retail distribution trends. The Petco and Walmart partnerships offer scale but risk margin dilution. Guidance and commentary on how retail demand complements (vs. cannibalizes) DTC will help shape gross margin forecasts. Finally, product mix — especially in consumables like treats and supplements — remains a forward growth lever, and investors will want updates on attachment rates.

• Q4 EPS Estimate: -$0.0046
• Q4 Revenue Estimate: $126.74M
• YoY Revenue Growth: +4.3%
• EBITDA Estimate: $3.08M
• EBITDA Margin: 2.43%
• Short Interest: 7.18% of float
  

Expectations are low but stable. The Street sees revenue growing just over 4% YoY — modest but consistent with recent guidance and seasonal softness post-holiday. EPS is projected to hover near breakeven, marking the second consecutive quarter of near-neutral net income. More importantly, BARK is expected to show positive EBITDA of $3 million — signaling cost control and improving efficiency in customer fulfillment and logistics.

Gross margin expansion is a key lever. The company is projecting further improvement from Q3’s 60.6% figure, driven by lower fulfillment costs, reduced packaging waste, and higher take rates on curated SKUs. Analysts will also look for improved net revenue per subscriber and a return to sequential subscriber growth after a period of stagnation.