Opinion Poll 1) Labour “on track for a 212-seat majority”
“Labour is on track to win the largest majority of any party in modern history, a major poll has suggested, as Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer made their final appeals for support. As voters go to the polls on Thursday, the last YouGov survey of the campaign found that Labour was on track for a 212-seat majority, with the Conservatives reduced to just 102 MPs. However, Sunak urged voters who had abandoned his party to return, saying that they had the “power to prevent an unchecked Labour government”. – The Times
- Half of Cabinet “set to lose seats” – Daily Mail
- Just how bad will it be for the Tories? My final prediction – John Curtice, Daily Telegraph
- Sunak vows to fight to the end – Daily Mail
- The marginal seats where postal vote delays might swing results – Daily Telegraph
- Sunak “fears losing his own seat” – The Guardian
- Labour must take immediate action to deliver on workers’ rights, says union chief – The Guardian
- Wealthy “already fleeing the country” – Daily Mail
- Farage proves to be a knockout with his fans in Clacton – Madeline Grant, Daily Telegraph
- How long will Angela Rayner be happy as Starmer’s deputy? – Andrew Pierce, Daily Mail
- Starmer would scrap the Rwanda plan and offer an amnesty to illegal migrants = James Cleverly, Daily Express
- Tories accelerate social media spending in final days of campaign – Financial Times
- When will the election results be announced? Hour-by-hour timings – The Times
>Today:
- ToryDiary: Vote Conservative. Because things can only get worse.
- Lord Ashcroft on Comment: My final campaign poll finds that even Labour voters are pessimistic about Britain’s future.
- Neil Garratt on Local Government: Would a Labour government mean rent control in London?
>Yesterday:
- Piers McKenzie Baker on Comment: The Conservatives need Farage if they want a new generation of voters
- Aaron Jacob on Comment: After five years of global crises, the Prime Minister offers hope for the future
Opinion Poll 2) Internal Conservative polling shows 60 seats “in play”
“The Conservatives’ latest internal projections forecast that the party would confidently retain about 80 seats, with another 60-odd constituencies viewed as being “in play”, according to a senior Tory insider. It suggests that, even in an optimistic scenario, the Conservatives may only return about 140 MPs, down from 365 at the previous election. A Tory spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.” – Financial Times
Opinion Poll 3) Conservatives to be reduced to “around a hundred MPs”
“Sir Keir Starmer is set to win the largest Labour majority in history, The Telegraph’s final opinion poll of the campaign has found. Labour is on course to win 39 per cent of the vote – almost twice as much as the Conservatives – in a landslide victory. It would represent a dire night for Rishi Sunak and would likely see the Conservatives reduced to around 100 MPs.” – Daily Telegraph
- Tories overtake Reform again – Daily Express
- Reform UK on track to win 13 seats – Daily Telegraph
- Tory party set for multiple ‘Portillo moments’ – Daily Telegraph
Sunak “to stay on as Leader for orderly transition”
“Rishi Sunak is expected to stay on as Tory leader if he loses the election to ensure that there is an “orderly transition” amid concerns that the party will descend into bitter infighting. Cabinet ministers have directly appealed to the prime minister to stay on as party leader until September to avoid further chaos in the wake of a potential landslide Labour victory. There are fears that Sunak has had such a bruising election campaign that he could be tempted to leave immediately.” – The Times
- The runners and riders to replace Rishi Sunak – Daily Telegraph
Threat of Council Tax rises under Labour via revaluation
“A Labour frontbencher has expressed frustration at the “out of date” council tax system and hinted that a tax raid on wealthy people’s homes is coming. In a leaked recording, Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, admitted that Labour cannot openly talk about revaluing homes for council tax because no party that does so is ever elected. He also suggested the whole council tax system “needs to be changed” in comments that have been seized on by the Conservatives.” – Daily Telegraph
- Are Labour coming for pensioners? Reeves adviser says well-off older people must ‘contribute’ and warns ‘unpopular’ inheritance tax rises are ‘on the agenda’ – Daily Mail
- Yes, Labour will deliver growth…in your tax bill – Jeremy Hunt, The Times
The Sun endorses Labour
“The Tories allowed a Work From Home civil service “blob”, activist quangos and human rights lawyers and judges to run rings around them, thwarting sensible policies. Illegal and legal immigration have not been kept under control. Taxes have ballooned to the highest level since World War Two. Plotting against the leadership has been endless. Sleaze scandals – most recently gambling on the timing of the election – have broken public trust. Put bluntly, the Tories are exhausted. They need a period in Opposition to unite around a common set of principles which can finally bring to an end all the years of internal warfare. It is time for a change.” – Leader, The Sun
- Endorsement prompts backlash from leftwingers – Daily Mail
- Don’t risk handing the UK to the Left – Leader, Daily Telegraph
- Labour has yet to earn the trust of the British people – Leader, The Times
- The election is about the future of this country, not the past. On almost every major issue from migration to the tax burden, Labour would make things worse. – Leader, Daily Mail
- Vote Tory or hand Labour unchecked power – Leader, Daily Express
- A moment to cherish and nurture democracy – Leader, The Guardian
Starmer rules out rejoining the EU Single Market in his lifetime
“Sir Keir Starmer has ruled out the UK rejoining the EU single market in his lifetime, a move that sets up a future confrontation with the pro-EU wing of the Labour party. Asked during a trip to Wales if he could foresee “any circumstances” in which the UK would rejoin the EU single market during his life, the 61-year-old Labour leader — whom polls say is on track to become prime minister after Thursday’s general election — was emphatic.” – Financial Times
- A proper audit of the impact of leaving the EU would deliver political and economic benefits to incoming Labour ministers – Robert Shrimsley, Financial Times
Other political news
- I’m not leaving, Biden says, as pressure to drop out grows – BBC
- Starmer refuses to rule out early release for high-risk prisoners – The Times
- Reform candidate Angela Carter-Begbie says ‘Jews run the banks’ as party remains silent on calls to suspend her – Daily Mail
- Farage slams FA for emasculating young men – The Sun
- Hamas faces growing public dissent as Gaza war erodes support – BBC
- Reform’s Dorset candidate lives 200 miles away and has only visited county once – The Times
- Andrew Tate’s brother Tristan made large donations to George Galloway’s Workers Party – The Sun
- NHS leader calls for partnership with private sector to build new hospitals – The Guardian
- Zelensky tells Trump to explain his peace plan – Daily Telegraph
- Just five failed asylum-seekers sent to Rwanda – The Sun
Hannan: Labour does not deserve to win
“What has Sir Keir Starmer done to deserve a super-majority? Did he save a drowning puppy? Did he win the Victoria Cross? Has he filled his party with politicians of such scintillating brilliance that we would gladly hold open our wallets and invite them to spend our money for us? Has he been proved right on policy? Of course not. The Labour leader’s only superpower is to say what people want to hear…To paraphrase Neil Kinnock from 1983, if Labour wins today, I warn you not to own your home. I warn you not to run a business. I warn you not to drive a car. If Labour wins today, I warn you not to save money or turn on your heating or rely on your pension. Above all, I warn you not to die.” – Daniel Hannan, Daily Mail
- When Blair won his landslide in 1997, I said the Tories would be back. This time I’m every bit as certain… – Stephen Glover, Daily Mail
- Labour’s plan for Britain should terrify us all – Priti Patel, Daily Telegraph
- Labour will usher in an era of stasis in which any meaningful reform is stifled by bureaucrats and lawyers – Juliet Samuel, The Times
Heath: The UK is about to enter a nightmare much darker than anyone yet realises
“Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834. Sir Keir Starmer as Labour prime minister would face the clownish Ed Davey of Post Office scandal fame as leader of the opposition at Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tory leader, whoever he or she may end up being, would be left with two questions at the end of the session, by which time most viewers would have lost interest. The shadow chancellor would be a Lib Dem.” – Allister Heath, Daily Telegraph
News in brief
- Labour canvassers told to wear Primark in poor areas – Guido Fawkes
- Starmer’s plans will need a robust Opposition – Harry Phibbs, CapX
- The Tories: a requiem – Gareth Roberts, The Spectator
- What are the first jobs of a new Prime Minister? – Caitlin Doherty, The House magazine
- Revealed: the 103 professional lobbyists standing in the 2024 general election – New Statesman
The post Newslinks for Thursday 4th July 2024 appeared first on Conservative Home.
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