David Lu is a Canadian political staffer and political campaigner now based in London. He previously worked for the Progressive Conservative government in Ontario.
With the NATO Summit coming up in July in Washington DC, eyes will be on Canada to see what they will do to celebrate the alliance’s 75th anniversary.
A main item on the agenda, customary to most previous summits, will be to discuss nations’ funding commitment to the alliance’s defence spending target of two per cent of their GDP. Out of the 32 members of NATO, nine of them are currently not meeting that target.
Out of the nine, Canada is the only country which has not set out a clear plan to meet the target yet. As allies have been calling out Justin Trudeau for years, pressure is starting to mount for him on the world stage.
With multiple military conflicts going on across the world recently, defence spending has become a topic of discussion to many who have never cared for it in the past few decades.
In the April Budget, the Canadian government has highlighted a new defence strategy which increases spending to $8.1 billion over the next 5 years, and $73 billion over the next 20. Although a sizeable increase, it would only meet 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2029/2030, still short of the two per cent benchmark.
The hesitancy to fully commit to the target is still a mystery. It’s not as if Canada doesn’t have the financial capacity to do so. Trudeau has previously said that Canada will likely never meet the two per cent goal, signalling that it is just not a priority for the country.
So what does this new defence strategy represent? I think it’s a half-baked plan to satisfy electors on both sides of this issues, as well as trying to save a bit of face on the global stage.
Unfortunately for the Liberals, who are trailing massively in the polls, even this increase in spending will not be enough convince allies that they are doing their part. A NATO report, published 17 June, tracking member countries’ projected spending puts Canada’s commitment as even lower than claimed; with increasing economic activities, 2024 defence spending is pegged at only 1.37 per cent of GDP.
Not only does this exacerbate defence and security concerns, but it also threatens Canada’s diplomatic and economic strengths.
Even the Business Council of Canada have raised alarms to the Prime Minister, warning that Canada faces “diplomatic isolation”, causing “broad ramifications for all Canadians”, if it does not deliver a concrete plan at the NATO Summit next month.
Rarely does a business association comment on issues of military and national security, so this really highlights the domino effect a lack of spending on defence can cause on the trade and investment relations – a stark warning compounding on the already dire situation of domestic and foreign investors pulling out of Canada at a record pace. As Adam Chambers, a Conservative MP, said: “Defence spending is the price for being taken seriously in the world now.”
If you ask most Canadians, including myself, we pride ourselves in having tax dollars go to universal health care, as opposed to the military. This is a regular comparison made to southern neighbours in the United States. However, with multiple military conflicts and geopolitical instability in the world, defence spending might viewed less as frivolous, more a necessity.
This change in tone could be attributed to threats made by Donald Trump to not support nations who don’t meet their NATO targets. The thought of Trump getting a second term as president has definitely moved the needle: recent poll suggesting that support for increased defence spending has rose from 53 per cent to 60 per cent.
However, it is still not a black and white for issue for Canadians. While criticizing not spending enough on defence, criticisms are also made towards the billions sent in support of Ukraine, all the while domestic problems persists.
Amongst the many domestic issues Canadians are not happy about, the state of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is one of them. It has been years of scandals on top of low funding for all branches of the CAF. With record low enrolment rates and decreasing nationalism, there is a projected shortfall of 16,500 service members.
Even with allowing permanent residents to sign up for service since 2022, we are not expecting to hit the military target of 71,000 regular and 30,000 reserve forces until 2032. Amongst the personnel currently in service, the Department of National Defence predicts that only 58 per cent are in a state of readiness to respond if called upon by NATO.
In the April Budget, a new Basic Military Qualification was implemented to try to boost number of service members. This compliments recent changes to the military dress code such as easing restrictions on painted nails, tattoos, haircuts, and gender neutral uniforms – all in the effort to make the military more attractive to the younger generation.
Although Canada has never been seen as a military superpower, they do play a part in the grand scheme of geo-political security. Increasing attention is made onto how Trudeau is reacting to global conflicts and whether Canada can make a meaningful impact on operations around the world.
While the Canadian Armed Forces do have some presence around the world to support global operations, their allies certainly expect more. There just doesn’t seem to be a clear plan to change the way things are run at the moment.
I’m not advocating for a complete surrender to the military industrial complex. But if Canada wants to be a global leader and a respected member of NATO and of the G7, changes need to be made. It’s bad enough that Trudeau gets zero respect from the rest of the world leaders at the table – let’s not make our military a laughing stock too.
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Author: David Lu
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