Sir John Redwood is a former MP for Wokingham and a former Secretary of State for Wales.
The election campaign has failed to grapple well with the central concerns of many voters.
How will the U.K. return to good sustained growth? How will we control inflation better in the future? How will we get tax rates down whilst having enough money for good public services? How will the new government restore lost public sector productivity, get waiting lists down, and quality of public services up? How will the Government control our borders? How many migrants can we welcome each year without undue pressure on housing and public services?
These questions need to be pursued with all the parties in the last few days of the election. This article explores how the media could help inform us better by tailoring the relevant questions to the main parties based on what and in some cases on how little they have told us of their answers.
The Conservatives have proposed a substantial reduction in legal migration, and have their policy on trying to deter more people coming illegally by small boat. They need to be pressed on what legal limit on numbers they would impose for the first year, and on whether the policy changes introduced to cut numbers this January are sufficient to meet their target.
They have said they plan to get the tax burden down and have made a start with two cuts in National Insurance. Will they push up the threshold for small business VAT further, as that would help growth by letting more businesses expand? Will they tackle the obstacle of IR 35 to more self-employment? Will they set out more of their plans for the taxation of gains, savings income, and wealth? Do they accept that the toughening of the Non-Dom’s regime has lost us revenue as rich people leave the UK or fail to come here to invest and spend?
They have announced a workforce plan and several initiatives to get NHS waiting lists down and give people better access to care. When will they complete work on more accurate waiting list numbers, given the amount of double counting and misleading entries on the lists?
Labour has got away with little scrutiny of its implausible proposition that it will be the party of growth. Its net zero policies mean closing down more UK industrial capacity. It has an unbelievable pledge to be generating power at net zero CO2 by 2030 with no detailed plans on how they will get the extra grid and renewable generation built and paid for by then. They have not answered how we keep the lights on when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine, other than to suggest we will still need some gas generators as backup. How does that marry with net zero?
They think there is a deal to be done with the EU to get us back into parts of the single market without formally rejoining it. Dream on. The EU will stick to its line that the UK would need to align its laws and accept new EU laws in any sector seeking a closer link.
Far from accelerating growth, aligning ourselves more fully with the EU will slow our growth. Our growth rate was faster before we joined the EEC than after we joined. Our growth rate slowed more after 1992 when they completed the single market. Far from being a surge of business opportunity, it was a weighty legal programme of laws and rules that made it dearer and more difficult to do business. It was also a customs Union seeking to keep out cheaper products and new ideas from outside the EU.
Labour wants to spend more on public services but has identified little extra money. They wish to place themselves on the OBR austerity rack, accepting the need to get state debt as a percentage of GDP down in year 5. This leaves their policy vulnerable to pessimistic OBR forecasts. They have no wish to restrain the enormous planned losses of the Bank of England on its bond portfolio.
Do they see how this will force them to raise taxes as they seek more money to spend on the public sector? Â Their wish to nationalise the remaining modest parts of the railway that are not nationalised will be costly. They will need to find the money for all the subsidies and public purchasing that a large net zero electricity industry will require.
On tax, they will discover that tougher Non-Dom taxes will mean less revenue as they will have fewer rich to tax. They will have to spend on more school places as parents find VAT on private sector school fees too dear. They offer few thoughts on how to recapture the £20 billlion or more of lost productivity. They will settle outstanding pay disputes at higher levels. They need to be asked more questions about future spending and tax plans.
As for the Lib Dems, they have treated the election as chance for publicity-catching stunts. Their main objective has been to get across it is bad to have sewage discharged into rivers. We all agree about that. What is absent from Lib Dem leaflets is how you can over overcome this.
They say they will introduce measures to fine companies. There are already such powers and companies do get fined. They say they will introduce a new regulator. We already have one. That is how we now know about the discharges. When we had a nationalised industry there was no Regulator and little data about all the sewage they tipped into our rivers and onto our beaches.
They talk about public interest companies. How much would that cost to bring them into existence and pay for all the extra investment needed? The only way to stop the discharges is a massive programme of larger and newer pipes, digging up most of the roads to put them in. It is gradually happening. It takes time and lots of money which has to be paid either by us as taxpayers or by us as water consumers. Lib Dems don’t want to mention the bill. They need to do better at their chosen special subject.
Let us hope greater clarity emerges in the last days of this election. Labour sticks to small measures and big claims. The Lib Dems have amnesia about their role in the Coalition government. The Conservatives need to flesh out their growth and migration policies.
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Author: Sir John Redwood MP
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