Recently I reread Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000.
A consistent theme throughout the book is how great powers often fall when their military ambitions surpass their capabilities—that is, great powers have always had a tendency to overestimate themselves and underestimate their rivals.
Chapter 5 details to the run-up to World War I, and how every power in Europe failed to understand the sheer scope of the cataclysm they would unleash when they committed to war in 1914. In spite of possessing far greater general education and knowledge of history than today’s pitiful crop of politicians, the leaders of Europe in 1914 miscalculated everything. At the war’s conclusion four years later, the disaster had claimed 20 million lives and wounded 21 million others.
The war started when ranking members of the Hapsburg Court in Vienna issued an unfulfillable ultimatum to the Kingdom of Serbia, and it concluded with the end of the Hapsburg dynasty’s rule since 1282.
I woke up this morning to reports of an attack on a beach resort in Sevastopol (Crimea) with five US-supplied ATACMS tactical missiles, fired from Ukrainian territory, that killed three people and wounded over 100. And so, it seems, the U.S. and Nato continue on the path of escalation.
I wonder if the people featured in the following video know what they are getting themselves into. Are they acquainted with the history of the 1900-1914 period, and recognize the eery resemblance it bears to the current situation in Europe?
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Author: John Leake
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