Angus Parsad-Wyatt is Chief Executive of ConservativeHome.
Welcome to week five of ConservativeHome’s Campaign Notebook – our snapshot journey through Conservative campaigns across the UK in the lead-up to the general election.
This week we have been putting in the miles – by car and on foot – to bring you the latest from campaigns in a clutch of Red Wall seats in North East England; and battles with the SNP in North East Scotland.
North East England
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Our first stop is the constituency of Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, which has been represented by Sir Simon Clarke since 2017. First elected with a majority of 1,020 – which he increased to 11,626 at the last election – Clarke is often seen as one of the trendsetters for the 2019 collapse of the Red Wall.
We join the former Chief Secretary to the Treasury (and short-lived Housing Secretary under Liz Truss’ premiership) in Hemlington ward, represented on Middlesbrough Council by two Labour councillors, who won four times as many votes as the Conservatives.
“It is definitely close, but it does not feel as bad as the polls would suggest” Clarke starts, adding “this will be an interesting test today as this is not normally a good area for us, but I think it’s really important to work with all communities.”
The first two people we talk to both speak of Clarke’s record, combined with that of Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen: “I like what Ben and you have been doing with all the jobs, so you’ve got my vote.”
The leaflet the team are delivering similarly carries endorsements from dozens of locals, business owners, and even one man who was due to stand for Reform UK but thinks Clarke has done such a good job that he stepped aside in the hope that he is re-elected.
As we continue round the houses, we come across a couple of residents who politely tell us they’re voting Labour, followed by one older chap who starts by saying “I’ve always voted Labour and was a Labour Party member for years”, only to surprise Clarke by adding:
“But Labour have been a shambles on the Council, and they’ve never really done anything for us. But you can see what you and the Mayor are doing, so I’ll be voting Conservative.”
These are of course all anecdotes from a dozen voters in a couple of streets in one ward, but it is evident that however people here vote on 4 July, they recognise what Clarke, Houchen, and the local team have delivered in terms of levelling up Teesside.
Clarke made headlines in January when he called on fellow Conservatives to replace the Prime Minister (again). At the time, whilst many agreed with Clarke’s assessment, others felt another change of leader would be just as mad given the lack of a clear alternative; so we asked whether, given the faltering poll ratings for the Tories, he now felt vindicated in publishing that letter?
“It is one of those sliding doors moments. You never know what might have happened, but yes sadly I think I have been proved right, and things would have been better under a new leader.”
Some may have seen Clarke’s actions as opportunist – although he stressed at the time that neither he wanted to stand for leader, nor did he have anyone in mind – but talking to him it is evident that Clarke believes winning his seat now is about more than just his own career:
“It is very important for the future of the Conservative Party that we win seats like this in the North and Midlands. We clearly have lessons to learn, and we cannot retreat to Shire Nimbyism. We have ducked the hard choices on housing and if we’d tackled them differently and gripped the issues then we would now be winning over younger voters. It is clearly not sustainable to rely solely on over-60s.”
Redcar
A short drive takes us to Teesville, where we join Jacob Young, the Levelling Up Minister, in his constituency of Redcar. Young was first elected in 2019 as part of Boris’ Brexit-based sweep across the north east; but with a slim majority of 3,527, polls currently predict this seat will swing back to Labour on 4 July.
“One word to sum up what we’re finding on the doorstep: apathy. There’s not a lot of switchers, just people who are weary of all politics”, Young tells ConservativeHome.
This is a sentiment we have reported on from elsewhere during the campaign, with people unhappy with the Conservatives, but not enamoured with Labour. But how can you turn undecideds and Reform-leaners into Conservative voters in two weeks? Young says:
“People here have had a Labour MP recently, so a lot of them know that is not something they want. That’s particularly true of people who are thinking of going to Reform, they definitely don’t want Anna Turley again, and they can see what we’ve delivered so it’s a positive thing to back.”
His leaflet lists some of the local achievements to help convince voters with: thousands more jobs on Teesside, regeneration of Eston Square, and working with Houchen to get things done. But when asked about whether he’s deliberately avoiding the national messaging, Young tells us: “When I won in 2019 I didn’t expect to and I was lucky because of the national campaign and Boris; so I can’t complain too much if the national picture is also what gets me out.”
But how do the residents of Redcar feel about their choice at this election? “I’ve not decided to be honest. I would never vote Labour, but I know here it’s between them and you, so I feel as though I’m talking myself into voting Conservative” says one middle-aged man on the doorstep.
One woman heading out shopping spotted Young coming down her driveway and said “I know who you are, I’ll be voting for you. And my daughter too.” A discussion about pensions then ensued, with the lady asking Young to “sort that out if you get back in, because I know Labour won’t.”
However, having elected a Labour MP at every election bar one from 1974 to 2019, there is still an entrenched anti-Conservative position amongst some voters. A man walking his kids home from school briefly followed Young’s team group shouting “Get the Tories out! 14 years of misery”; and another on his driveway said “I’d do a 180 and go away if I were you fella – your lot are all corrupt.”
Whilst the record of delivery from the Conservatives on Teesside is impressive, it may not be enough to convince enough voters to back them again.
Stockton West
Next up, we join Matt Vickers and his team, who are busy entering data and writing leaflets whilst watching the England match in the Hartburn area of Vickers’ Stockton West constituency.
Vickers was also first elected in 2019, with a majority of 5,260 votes, and is currently one of the deputy chairmen of the Conservative Party. He was previously the leader of the Conservative group on the local council, and prior to that he was an election agent for William Hague in the neighbouring Richmond (Yorks) seat, where he also oversaw the selection for Hague’s replacement there – one R Sunak.
Much like in Redcar, Middlesbrough, and across the Tees Valley, there are two competing elements to the campaign in Stockton West – a demonstrable record of delivery by Conservative MPs and Mayor Houchen; and the wider national feeling that the Conservatives have let people down.
On the first of those points, Vickers explains that what people see every day here is Levelling Up in action:
“We’ve got the airport, a new vocational training centre, a new diagnostics hub, a train station upgrade, a new town hall in Yarm; and just a few weeks ago we got the green light to demolish the Golden Eagle hotel, which has been an eyesore for years, and we ran a big petition to get everyone’s support for that.”
A look at the local elections last year also suggest the Conservatives have been running a good campaign here for a while, increasing their seat tally on Stockton-on-Tees Council from 14 to 26, and becoming the largest group on the council. “We had a really strong, joined-up, local campaign and we hammered Labour on council waste and tax rises”, explains Vickers.
However, the other side of this campaign is the national picture. Vickers says that “because we’re having to fight to hang on to most of the seats around here, our resources are much more stretched than previously, so we can’t provide or pull mutual aid from neighbouring seats in the same way.”
In contrast, given Joe Dancey (his Labour opponent) is the partner of Wes Streeting, Shadow Health Secretary, “he seems to be getting a disproportionate amount of activist support and resources, and they are fighting really hard here – but we fight back.”
Darlington
Along the A66, in Darlington, Peter Gibson is another member of the 2019-intake making levelling up achievements the central message in his campaign to defend a narrow majority (3,294).
“When you add it all up, we’ve invested over £1 billion in Darlington over the past four years, and whether they’re voting for me or not, people recognise that” Gibson explains, adding that this is about the visibility of achievements: “They can see the diggers in the ground, they can see the cranes, they know someone who works at the Treasury [Darlington Economic Campus].”
Gibson’s latest leaflet is headlined ‘Levelling Up Darlington’ and features a list of projects being delivered by him, Houchen and the Conservatives locally, including town centre regeneration, railway station renovation, a new SEN school, and a recently secured new dental surgery – it’s an impressive list, but is it helping to convince undecided voters?
“We have some voters who are not happy about what’s happened in Westminster, but they appreciate what I’ve done and what Ben has done. In some cases we’ve had people who voted Labour in 2019, but they don’t like Starmer and they can see what I’ve delivered, so they are saying the will vote for me this time round.”
In the bustling town centre, we ask voters directly for their thoughts. “I’ll definitely be voting Labour” one young woman tells us; whilst another man says “the Tories have stuffed it up, but I don’t trust Starmer, so I’m not sure.” An older lady gives a heavy sigh when asked about the election but replies that she will vote “reluctantly, probably, for Labour.”
However, there are some positive responses too, including from one woman who says that she voted Conservative for the first time in her life in 2019 because “I liked Boris and they wanted to help places like this, and I can see what they’ve been doing, so I think we should keep them in”; and another voter who said: “Oh yes, Peter will get my vote, he’s been good for us.”
North East Scotland
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
We start our journey through North East Scotland at the Glenglassaugh Scottish Traditional Boat Festival in the seaside town of Portsoy. This area is in the newly redrawn constituency of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where current leader of the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party, Douglas Ross, is standing.
Ross had announced in 2021 that he would not seek re-election to Westminster, wishing to instead focus on Holyrood. However, with David Duguid, the current MP, unwell in hospital and unable to campaign, the Party Board decided to remove Duguid, and with only 36 hours to select a candidate asked Ross to stand.
Speaking to ConservativeHome at the Scottish Conservatives’ stand at the boat festival (amusingly next to the SNP’s stand, pictured) Ross candidly reflects on his selection and announcing his departure as leader of the Scottish Conservatives:
“Standing down wasn’t how I envisaged it happening, but we are where we are and we’re fighting hard. It will be close, but people who don’t want the SNP know they need to vote for us”.
Ross emphasises that in this seat the election is a straight choice between the Conservatives and the SNP – a message being used in dozens of Scottish seats – but notes that local issues like access to GP surgeries are at the forefront of voters’ minds, rather than broader Westminster or national campaigns:
“People aren’t talking about independence here; there’s a general sense of being ‘scunnered’ (or fed up) with all politics, but they understand how close this race is.”
Conversations with locals at the festival, one woman praised Ross for his challenging of Michael Matheson, the SNP’s former Health Secretary. “You did such a great job holding them to account,” she says. An older couple express their frustration with the SNP’s performance: “You’re going to be our future MP, you will. We’re so fed up with the SNP’s failures,” they tell Ross.
Another, who used to donate to the SNP, smiles and tells Ross he’ll be voting Conservative this time around. “I used to give money to the SNP, but I certainly won’t do that again!”
Not all interactions are positive though, with one man, mistaking Ross for an SNP candidate, asking: “Are you the independence lot? That’s what I want”, highlighting the ongoing political divisions in Scotland, and the challenges Ross faces in his campaign.
Gordon and Buchan
A short drive south brings us to the town of Turriff, in the constituency of Gordon and Buchan, where we join candidate Harriet Cross and her team.
Selected a year ago, Cross says she has been campaigning three times a week, every week, and working hard to speak to as many people as possible and win support. With the majority from the last election being just 819 votes, she emphasises the importance of every single vote.
“It really comes down to a choice between two parties – SNP or Conservatives” – there’s that message again, which is also clearly reflected on Cross’s leaflet. But are previous Conservative voters still pledging their support, or are they planning to vote for another party?
“Our voters are broadly sticking with us, and those who aren’t are leaning towards Lib Dem or Labour, not the SNP. The SNP vote, on the other hand, is splintering more.”
Farming is a key industry for this particular community, and as a surveyor specialising in agriculture, Cross says she speaks the farmers’ language, and understands their concerns, “whereas the SNP are disinterested in rural Scotland.” She explains that this dissatisfaction with local services – particularly health care and schools – is behind a noticeable apathy toward the SNP.
“We also can’t leverage investment for new industries, like renewable energy – which the SNP and Labour want to replace oil and gas – because our roads and transport links haven’t been invested in.”
On the doorstep, voter sentiments vary. One resident says she thinks that public services would improve without ties to England, so she might vote SNP, but Cross’ explanation of funding and governance makes her reconsider. An older man, who tells us he is an SNP supporter, admits he’s “not entirely against the Conservatives” but wants a change from the British government.
Another voter, who has received a stack of leaflets from all parties, states firmly, “I don’t like the SNP, never have. I’m voting Conservative”; and her neighbour agrees that the SNP are “obsessed with independence and nothing else.”
Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
The third and final constituency we visit in North East Scotland is West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, represented by Andrew Bowie, Minister for Nuclear & Renewables, whom we catch up with in the town of Westhill, just outside of Aberdeen.
Bowie first won this seat in 2017 with a majority of 7,950, but saw it reduced to just 843 in 2019. “Every election is a fight, and I’ve always been the underdog, so it feels like we’re in a continuous campaign”, he says.
Bowie has evidently been working hard out and about talking to voters, particularly since the weather has improved, as he’s sporting a tan “I have to keep explaining to people that I’ve been out campaigning every day, this is not a holiday tan!” Bowie laughs.
This constituency is vast, spanning from Inverberie, Stonehaven and Portlethen on the coast, to Ballater, Glenshee and the Cairngorms to the west (and including the Royal Estate at Balmoral).
A constituency which covers some 1,900 square kilometres means a range of issues in each of the different areas. The southern towns want to see road and rail improvements but have major concerns about pylons; whilst the rural communities in the west feel they have been ignored by the SNP – as we saw in Harriett Cross’ neighbouring constituency.
“The SNP and Scottish Labour are focused on the Central Belt, and the look down on this area. People feel more ignored by Holyrood than by Westminster.”
Energy is the key local issue here, specifically oil and gas. “This town [Westhill] didn’t exist before the oil and gas industry took off, you’ll see the big companies all have offices here, the industry is absolutely crucial for this area”, Bowie explains.
Labour want to ban new drilling licences for oil and gas in the North Sea, which the SNP had also pledged as part of their coalition with the Scottish Greens, but is a position they have shied away from since the election was called. He adds:
“They say they want to replace those thousands of jobs with new roles in offshore wind, but there is just not the equivalent number of jobs there.”
Bowie’s very slim majority in 2019 would suggest the result in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine this time around is a foregone conclusion; but if you look at three different constituency-level polls, they will each give you a different outcome. The campaign could therefore make the difference here; so being a young (Bowie is 37), active, passionate campaigner, with a dynamic team of activists, could be to Bowie’s advantage. As he notes:
“From 2001 to 2017, there was only one Conservative MP in Scotland, so we knew we had to build on incumbency immediately and we have worked hard ever since.”
The campaign in Scotland feels very different from the one in England and Wales. Whilst there is still an unhappiness at elements of the Conservative Party, the SNP’s record at Holyrood represents a much bigger bogeyman looming over the day-to-day issues which people care about, like schools and healthcare, on which many voters feel they have failed.
Dissatisfaction and anger on the doorstep here is therefore aimed more towards the SNP than the Conservatives (which was a refreshing alternative for us to observe). In some of these marginal two-horse races in the North East of Scotland, voters may therefore yet opt for the least bad option.
Our final Campaign Notebook next week will take us to the South Coast, where Cabinet Ministers – and potential future leadership contenders – are fighting hard to keep their seats in the final week before poll day.
You can also read back on our previous Campaign Notebook reports here.
The post Angus Parsad-Wyatt: Campaign notebook, week five. A tale of two very different North Easts – England and Scotland appeared first on Conservative Home.
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Author: Angus Parsad-Wyatt
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