Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, one ‘major poll’ predicts…
“Rishi Sunak is predicted to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election. The Conservatives are also on track to slump to just 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out, a major opinion poll for The Telegraph has revealed. The Liberal Democrats are on course to be just behind the Tories on 50 MPs, according to the Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis, leaving them in touching distance of becoming the official opposition. Labour is forecast to have 516 seats and an estimated House of Commons majority of 382 – double that won by Sir Tony Blair in 1997 – as Sir Keir Starmer becomes prime minister. Meanwhile Reform, despite a surge in the polls, is predicted to get zero seats. For Nigel Farage, the recently returned Reform leader, it would mean an eighth defeat in a row as a parliamentary candidate.” – Daily Telegraph
- Reform is further eroding Conservative support – The Times
- The Tory big beasts set to lose seats in election bloodbath – Daily Telegraph
- We’re going to get it in the neck, Tory cabinet minister admits – The Sun
- Will your MP lose their seat? Use our search tool – Daily Telegraph
Comment:
- The two-party system is dying, and this vote may kill it – Tim Stanley, Daily Telegraph
>Yesterday: Daniel Hannan’s column: Why telling voters to ‘stop the landslide’ won’t work
…as another forecasts Farage to win Clacton with ‘biggest swing in modern history’
“Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested. The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent. Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”. The seat has been held by Giles Watling, a Conservative, since 2017. In 2019, when Boris Johnson put Brexit at the heart of his campaign, Watling secured a 24,702 majority with 72 per cent of the vote share.” – The Times
- Inside his mission to destroy the Tories and become prime minister within five years – The Sun
- Poll shows voters prefer all the other party leaders and 55 per cent say Farage would be a bad prime minister – Daily Mail
- Farage says he was offered peerages by ‘corrupt’ Johnson allies in 2019 – The Sun
- Reform turning a crisis into a catastrophe for Sunak – The Times
Candidates:
- One called for Abbott to be deported and complained that migrants bring ‘diseases’ to Britain… – Daily Mail
- …another suggested tinned food could cause gender dysphoria… – Daily Telegraph
- …whilst a third mounted ‘sickening attack on the royals’ during Jubilee celebrations – Daily Mail
Comment:
- With Tory wipe-out guaranteed, chain smoking populist has a plausible path to Downing Street… – Dan Hodges, Daily Mail
Editorial:
- The Tories are teetering on the brink of extinction – Daily Telegraph
>Today: Lord Ashcroft in Comment: My latest poll finds Reform UK making inroads amongst 2019 Conservative voters
>Yesterday:
- ToryDiary: Forecasts now suggest Farage could lead a caucus of MPs. But might he prefer to be a one-man band?
- Dr Patrick English’s column: Just who is voting for Reform UK, and why do they only hurt the Conservatives?
- Abigail Mainon’s Wales Report: Devolved government is undermining Starmer’s ‘change’ message – but will Farage benefit?
Sunak vows to cut taxes after inflation hits its target for first time in three years
“Rishi Sunak yesterday vowed to cut taxes after inflation hit its target for the first time in three years. He has promised more cash in people’s pockets if re-elected as the growth rate stood at two per cent. It is a victory for the PM, as inflation was at a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022 — after energy cost hikes over the invasion of Ukraine. He said: “It is because of that economic stability that we have restored, which was my priority when I got this job, that we have now been able to start cutting people’s taxes. If I win this election, I want to keep doing more of that.” Mr Sunak, who was at the Sizewell B nuclear power station in Suffolk yesterday, has promised to make £17billion of cuts over the next five years.” – The Sun
- Extra £38bn a year needed by 2029-30 to ‘revive’ NHS, says think-tank – FT
Comment:
- Why the Bank of England must cut rates today (but won’t) – Alex Brummer, Daily Mail
- You may hate Brexit but it’s working out well – Iain Martin, The Times
- Why won’t Rishi take the fight to Labour leader? – Stephen Glover, Daily Mail
Editorial:
- GDP is a poor measure of what matters in Britain’s economy – The Guardian
>Yesterday: Miles Celic in Comment: Financial services have a critical role in building a prosperous and sustainable future for Britain
Tories are ‘politically scarred’ by Truss, says Hunt
“Speaking to the Financial Times, Hunt said he “totally disagreed” with the notion that this would be a strategically beneficial election for the Tories to lose because of the fragile state of the public finances. Voters believe that whichever party wins the election on July 4 will be forced to raise taxes, which are already at their highest level in 70 years. Hunt said real wages were rising and the public finances had been stabilised, but he admitted that his party — which is trailing Labour by 20 points in the polls — was still suffering from the hangover of Truss’s disastrous 2022 “mini”-Budget. “I can’t pretend it was anything other than a very unfortunate period,” he said. “But the political scarring is probably greater than the economic scarring.” He stressed that Britain’s performance on growth and inflation since 2022 was strong compared with other G7 countries.” – FT
- Murty and senior Tory wives hit the campaign trail – Daily Telegraph
- Johnson is an ‘asset’ to the Tory general election campaign – Daily Express
Comment:
- Here are some of the good ones who deserve our vote – Mercy Muroki, The Sun
- The Tories finally have a credible solution to rebuild Britain – Dr Azeem Ibrahim, Daily Express
Sketch:
- Hotline becomes hateline as Sunak endures 60 minutes of abuse – Tom Peck, The Times
>Today: Elliot Keck in Local Government: MPs should not usurp the role of local councillors
Cleverly warns that Starmer would be a ‘selling point’ for small boat smuggling gangs…
“Small boat smuggling gangs will use Sir Keir Starmer as a selling point to encourage would-be migrants to make the crossing, his opponents say. The blast at the Labour leader came as 882 crossed on Tuesday – the highest tally in 18 months. Home Secretary James Cleverly said traffickers would be delighted that his party has vowed to axe the Rwanda scheme and let arrivals claim asylum in what would be seen as an “amnesty”. Labour hit back, accusing PM Rishi Sunak of presiding over the worst year our country has ever seen for illegal arrivals, while Nigel Farage declared a national security emergency. The surge in arrivals on Tuesday took the number this year to 12,313, meaning 2024 is set to be the worst on record. It is tracking above the 29,437 who arrived in 2023 and the 45,774 in 2022.” – The Sun
- Lorry drivers receiving specialist training amid fears of resurgence in migrant stowaways – Daily Express
- French cops take pictures while UK-bound migrants clamber onto inflatable boats – Daily Mail
Editorial:
- Labour is vague on how it could ever disrupt people smugglers – The Sun
>Yesterday: Alasdair Dow in Comment: The best route to a Tory recovery? Pledging to make Britain safe again
…and ‘lacks appetite’ for Conservative Party leadership contest
“James Cleverly is not planning to stand in the Tory leadership race following a presumed election loss, as the field of candidates to replace Rishi Sunak begins to narrow. Allies of the home secretary said he lacks the appetite to succeed Sunak compared with others touted to be leader of the opposition, having held two of the four great offices of state. His wife, Susie, has survived several rounds of intense cancer treatment after she first had breast cancer diagnosed in December 2021, which is said to have dampened Cleverly’s appetite to lead the party. With cabinet ministers publicly conceding an election loss is likely, discussions among party insiders have turned to a future leadership contest. Cleverly has told friends he does not plan to put himself forward.” – The Times
- Badenoch is the future of the Tory party; no one else survives – Daily Telegraph
Comment:
- Bullying politicians is a bad look for us all – James Marriott, The Times
Second Conservative candidate investigated over alleged bet on election date
“A second Tory candidate is being investigated over an alleged bet on the date of the general election. Laura Saunders, who is standing in Bristol North West, was reported by the BBC to be the subject of an inquiry by the Gambling Commission. A Conservative spokesman said: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.” … Mrs Saunders previously worked at Conservative Party headquarters in central London. The date and value of her alleged bet have not been disclosed. Mrs Saunders has not commented.” – Daily Telegraph
- Sunak’s police bodyguard arrested over ‘bet on election date’ – The Times
Labour plans first-time buyers’ tax of up to £11,500, warns Gove…
“Labour plans to hit young couples with a first-time buyers’ tax of up to £11,000, Michael Gove has claimed. The Housing Secretary said Labour would leave people trying to get on the property ladder worse off by refusing to match a Tory stamp duty cut. The party dismissed the claim as “baseless mudslinging” that “reeks of desperation”. Mr Gove’s warning came as Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, was forced to row back on remarks by Sir Keir Starmer over who is at risk of tax rises under a Labour government. The property price threshold at which stamp duty kicks in for first-time buyers was temporarily raised by Liz Truss from £300,000 to £425,000. In their manifesto, the Tories have pledged to make the higher rate permanent. Labour has not, meaning it would revert to £300,000 from next April.” – Daily Telegraph
- Opposition under pressure to be more radical about reforming private renting – The Guardian
- Dire warning that new Labour rules will have UK’s super wealthy abandoning the country – Daily Express
- Don’t you dare touch our Council Tax, voters warn Starmer – Daily Mail
More:
- Labour would rig future elections by giving vote to EU migrants and prisoners, claim Tories – Daily Telegraph
- Only billionaires can afford Keir Starmer’s tax hikes, blasts Sunak – The Sun
- Rayner’s hometown turns against her as angry locals fume: ‘She made things worse!’ – Daily Express
>Yesterday: Lizzie Francis in Comment: Embedding free speech for teachers is a timely Conservative manifesto pledge
…as it resists calls to close UK tax loophole used by Shein
“The Labour leadership is resisting calls to close a tax loophole used by Shein as the party seeks to encourage the controversial Chinese-founded fast-fashion company to float in London. Tax campaigners and some retailers have urged Labour to crack down on Shein’s use of the loophole, in which companies can avoid import duties by shipping small packages directly to customers, if the party wins the July 4 election. However Labour told the Financial Times it had no plans to do so. Shein’s planned flotation, which could fetch a valuation of about £50bn, would be a big test for an expected new Labour government as the party seeks to balance its centre-left politics with an attempt to burnish its pro-business credentials.” – FT
- Labour leader performs another flip flop as he goes back on statement about working people – The Sun
- Reeves vows to close gender pay gap ‘once and for all’ if she is chancellor – The Guardian
More:
- Are you one of Starmer’s ‘working people’? Take the test – The Times
- Ex-Labour minister to lead advisory group Flint Global – FT
Comment:
- No, Keir, the real opposition is behind you – Robert Shrimsley, FT
- Why Starmer will struggle to deliver growth – Juliet Samuel, The Times
- Hard-working people will get clobbered when Labour win – Rod Liddle, The Sun
- Labour can increase spending without raising tax – Chris Giles, FT
SNP pledges fresh independence talks if it gains majority of Scottish seats
“John Swinney has pledged to open negotiations for a fresh independence referendum if the Scottish National party wins a majority of seats north of the border in next month’s general election. “This election gives people the chance to intensify the pressure to secure independence,” the first minister of Scotland said at the SNP election manifesto launch in Edinburgh on Wednesday. “The obstacle to a democratic referendum is the intransigence of the UK government.” He dodged questions about whether a failure to win more Scottish seats than a resurgent Labour would mute calls for a second referendum, however. The country voted against independence in a 2014 referendum — with 55 per cent against and 45 per cent for — but about half of the Scottish population is now thought to be in favour.” – FT
- Scottish Labour drops candidate over ‘unacceptable’ pro-Russian posts on social media… – Daily Telegraph
- …as ‘squirming’ Starmer says he will be supporting Scotland in Euro match tonight – Daily Mail
Comment:
- Swinney still puts independence first – Alan Cochrane, Daily Telegraph
Sketch:
- Slumping SNP goes through the motions with reprinted manifesto – John Crace, The Guardian
Editorial:
- Voters are rightly wary of SNP, a party that has repeatedly failed in office – The Times
- Old arguments don’t fit a changed landscape – The Guardian
Galloway claims Britain will be ‘at war’ within six months of a Starmer election win
“Britain will be ‘at war’ within six months of a Labour election win, George Galloway claimed today as he launched his far-Left party’s ‘beautiful’ election manifesto. The Workers Party leader, a former Russia Today presenter, lashed out at Labour as he launched the 34-page document that promised to end UK military support for Ukraine, and hold a referendum on Nato membership. It includes chapters on redistribution, democratic reform and Palestine and referenced K-Pop and ‘creeping buro-fascism’, and pledges to reduce the mandatory retirement age to 60. The veteran politician spoke at the launch event at a hotel in Manchester, just a few miles south from Rochdale, where he became the town’s MP in February, following a by-election triggered by the death of Labour incumbent Tony Lloyd.” – Daily Mail
- Galloway shows Farage who’s Britain’s answer to Trump – Madeline Grant, Daily Telegraph
- Speaking without notes, it seemed Galloway might give us the full Castro – Quentin Letts, Daily Mail
>Today: Andrew Gimson’s Vox Pub: Corbyn heads for victory over Starmer in Islington
News in Brief:
- It’s not too late to win the votes of the self-employed – Harry Phibbs, CapX
- What the Conservatives can learn from Germany – Fred de Fossard, The Critic
- Labour is being treated as if it has already won – Freddie Hayward, New Statesman
- Working from home won’t fix Britain’s productivity – Annabel Denham, New Statesman
- The battle for Cornwall’s cowboy town – Tanya Gold, UnHerd
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