California News:
The Public Policy Institute of California released a new statewide survey on Thursday, finding that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) continues to lead former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) in polls by virtually the same amount as previous polls, 62% to 37%.
Previously, only one Schiff-Garvey matchup poll had been conducted before the primary, as many polling groups had earlier banked on a November election where Schiff would be facing Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) instead and had done those polls instead. However, as it became apparent that Garvey would be the one facing off against Schiff this November, a UC Berkeley IGS poll came out in late February with such a matchup. According to that poll, Schiff led 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided.
Post-Primary there has also been only one poll: The April 2024 Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. This poll showed something of a significant gain for the Democrats, with 61% of voters in favor of Schiff, 37% in favor of Garvey, and only 2% undecided. These figures are roughly similar to the 2012 Senate race, where Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein defeated Republican candidate Elizabeth Emken 62.5% to 37.5%. However, experts told the Globe that PPIC polls had been not very reliable, especially when, in late February, they still had Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) ahead of Garvey for second place in the Primary when every other poll had Garvey at at least a double digit lead over her.
Nonetheless, the PPIC released another poll on Thursday, showing Schiff and Garvey with nearly identical results. All that has happened is that 1% of undecided voters moved to Schiff, with Schiff coming in with 62%, Garvey at 37%, and only 1% undecided. The poll also showed polarized voter bases with 93% of Democrats saying they would vote Schiff, 90% of Republicans saying they would vote Garvey, and independents nearly split with 53% favoring Schiff and 45% favoring Garvey, Overall, the PPIC poll goes somewhat against where voters generally are, showing higher than expected support of Schiff.
Those higher than expected numbers carry over into the Presidential poll in the same survey. Previous polls have shown President Joe Biden with roughly 50% of the California vote, Trump with roughly 30%, independents getting around 10%, and the rest going towards undecided. A February Emerson College poll found that Biden was sitting at 51% in California, with former President Donald Trump at 32%, and Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%. A recent Independent Center poll found that Biden is only at 48%, with Trump at 28%, and Kennedy at 12%. Even with Trump’s conviction last month, aggregate polls still have Biden at 49.5% in the Golden state as of Friday afternoon.
Unusual 1% bumps between the April and June PPIC polls
However, the PPIC poll on Thursday seemed to be off in their own orbit. According to the PPIC poll, Biden is currently at 55%, with Trump at 31% and someone else at 13%. This is curiously almost in line with the April poll, with Biden beating Trump 54%-31%. Also curiously, Biden’s one-point bump coincides with Schiff’s one point bump in the poll, with other candidates not changing as well.
“There is something off here,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “Democrats are expected to be ahead. of course. But the PPIC polls have shown radically different results than other polls. Biden and Trump both had major legal hurdles, with Trump being convicted on 34 counts and Biden’s son getting three felony gun charges. It’s been a wash in polls, with Biden staying steady at a 49.5% average in California despite all that. Now, out of the blue, he has 55% support?
“The same goes for the Senate race. Based on demographics, likely voters, and base voters, Garvey should have a bit more right now, while Schiff should have a bit less. But, unlike the Biden polls, the PPIC have been the only polls for the Senate race in months, and it shows Schiff more ahead than expected.
“We need to wait for the Berkeley IGS or another place to get a good lay of the land. The PPIC can tell us some things, but not on these hard numbers. Also, don’t you find it amazing that both polls had an exact 1% bump in both races for the Democratic candidate? That pretty much never happens, as races widely differ. So, just takeaway that the Democrats are still leading both races by at least 10% and wait on other polls to confirm.
“Like I said before, Garvey has some bright spots over Schiff, especially when it comes to Latino voters. And these polls just aren’t showing what everyone else has been finding.”
More polls are expected soon as candidate campaigning is expected to grow soon with the upcoming summer months.
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Author: Evan Symon
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