This is getting realllly interesting. Let’s parse out some of what recent (and not so recent) polling data tells us about the lay of the land as we approach five months out from November 5, the day the country chooses between pro-life former President Donald Trump and pro-abortion President Joe Biden.
In the concluding “implications” of its most recent survey, Gallup’s Megan Brenan concludes “As he tries to win a second presidential term, Biden’s low approval rating makes him vulnerable.” The analysis leading up to that conclusion is much more complex than this obvious conclusion so the survey, taken May 1-23, is still worth a look.
What a virtual tsunami of surveys tells us is that President Biden has without question earned the right to be labeled “the least popular U.S. president in 70 years.” The coalition that buoyed pro-abortion Democrat presidential candidates for sixty years is taking on water.
We’ll talk about the obvious candidates—Blacks and Hispanics—in a moment. But first the one that only a few scholars have probed in depth: working class America, where I come from.
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Ruy Teixeira published a fascinating piece titled “The Working Class-Sized Hole in Democratic Support Widens: This is a big, big problem” He found
Across the battleground, Biden is losing to Trump among working-class voters by 16 points. That compares to Biden’s national working-class deficit of just 4 points in 2020.
So what? Teixeira quotes this from Timothy Noah:
For the past 100 years, no Democrat—with one exception—has ever entered the White House without winning a majority of the working-class vote, defined conventionally as those voters who possess a high school degree but no college degree. The exception was Joe Biden in 2020, under highly unusual circumstances (a badly-mismanaged Covid pandemic, an economy going haywire). It’s unlikely in the extreme that Biden can manage that trick a second time. He must win the working-class vote in 2024.
A headline in a story that appears in Politico was headlined “Biden’s Black voter troubles are setting off alarm bells.”
The opening paragraph of Eugene Daniels’ and Lauren Egan’s story reads
Prominent Black officials are warning the Biden campaign that the president’s efforts to keep Black voters firmly and enthusiastically in his electoral coalition aren’t working — and that time is running out to get his message across.
According to Daniels and Egan
An April Wall Street Journal poll of seven swing states found that 30 percent of Black men were either “definitely or probably going to vote” for former President Donald Trump — a jump from the 12 percent of Black men who supported Trump nationwide in 2020. Those numbers haven’t just alarmed party officials, they’ve confounded them.
The argument of Black officials is that it’s a messaging problem. It “isn’t that White House lacks policy achievements — it’s that Black voters aren’t hearing about them.” Hmmm.
But….
But more privately, Democratic operatives express other fears, including that Black influencers and media personalities have soured on Biden and that the president himself has eschewed major interviews and less scripted campaign stops, making him less accessible to voters. Black leaders also see the community as open to the Donald Trump campaign’s targeted entreaties.
So in summary (or so they would have voters believe) not only is Biden’s running over with concrete accomplishments for which he is not getting his proper due, worse yet is that the Black community is open “to the Donald Trump campaign’s targeted entreaties.”
“Targeted entreaties”? Give me a break.
In a New York Times/Siena College poll, published on March 2, Trump beat Biden among Hispanic voters 46-40. The Times grudgingly conceded that “the poll, and others like it, make clear that Mr. Trump has continued to make remarkable inroads with Hispanic voters.”
And then there is one last survey—an outlier [for now]—that came out yesterday.
“A poll released Wednesday showed that former President Donald Trump has made inroads in Virginia, a state he lost to President Joe Biden by more than 10 points four years ago,” writes Nikki Schwab, Senior U.S. Political Reporter for the Daily Mail
“A fresh Roanoke College Poll showed Biden and Trump tied earning 42 percent of the vote each when the choices were just the Democrat and the Republican presumptive nominees. “
As they compare the presidencies of Trump and Biden, the Roanoke College Poll showed that Virginians shared the same feeling as the rest of the nation:
Trump’s first term in office is viewed by the Virginia electorate as being better for the country, with 44 percent of respondents saying it was mostly good, compared to 33 percent who rated it mostly bad.
When looking at Biden’s first term, 47 percent said it was mostly bad, while just 25 percent said it was mostly good.
LifeNews.com Note: Dave Andrusko is the editor of National Right to Life News and an author and editor of several books on abortion topics. He frequently writes Today’s News and Views — an online opinion column on pro-life issues.
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Author: Steven Ertelt
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