Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
Reports indicate that the helicopter carrying the missing Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, became trapped in a cloud mass in the mountains. Despite the pilot’s orders to ascend and avoid a collision, the pilote failed to rise above the clouds and crashed moments later.
The current state of the Iranian regime mirrors this incident. To replace the deceased president, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has two options:
Option One: continue purging to further consolidate power and resist waves of popular uprisings. Proponents of this strategy, including Khamenei himself, believe that this approach will better maintain the regime’s grip on power. In this scenario, he would seek another figure like Raisi to fully exercise his hegemony, believing that a split at the top equates to an uprising at the base, as seen in 2008.
However, the regime’s overall balance has been disrupted since Raisi’s death. Just as the Shah Reza Pahlevi struggled to maintain control after replacing his long-standing Prime Minister, Amir-Abbas Hoveyda, Khamenei might face similar difficulties in maintaining stability.
Option Two: replace Raisi with a more internationally respected figure, such as Ali Larijani (who served three consecutive terms as Parliament Speaker and was seen alongside the Supreme Leader at Raisi’s memorial). Larijani and others within the regime believe that interacting with the West is necessary to prevent a popular uprising. They argue that the regime should not be harsh on issues like Islamic hijab. However, they fail to address how fail to decrease the oppression while preserving a minimum support for the Supreme Leader, vital for regime’s survival.
The Structural Paradox of the Islamic Republic
In Iran, the Supreme Leader is considered God’s representative on Earth, and his will prevails over that pf the people. So, the president, supposed to represent a party or social class and execute the people’s will, invariably faces an unsolvable paradox with the Supreme Leader during each term. No president has escaped the Supreme Leader’s disgrace, whether by being sidelined like Rafsanjani or constantly monitored like Rohani.
Ebrahim Raisi was an exception, as he fully exercised the Supreme Leader’s will and was entirely loyal to Khamenei. The regime’s media emphasize Raisi’s loyalty, particularly during the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, where thousands were sentenced to death in two months, 90% reportedly being members of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), the mullahs’ sworn enemies. His ruthlessness made him the closest to the Supreme Leader, with his name mentioned as a potential successor to Khamenei or necessary aide to prepare for Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son, to succeed him. This is why Khamenei considers his death a significant loss.
“The Power Struggle”
Since Raisi’s disappearance, intense agitation has gripped pro-Khamenei factions. Officially, 29 people so far have declared candidacy. Regardless of Khamenei’s decision, the power struggle will intensify, and the regime’s structural paradox will deepen. The parliamentary presidency is also at stake, further intensifying this internal conflict.
Khamenei faces a society where 95% of the population desires radical change. According to regime statistics, only 7% of eligible voters participated in Tehran’s second round of the last legislative elections in May.
Four Stages to Overthrow
Iranian sociologists agree that the regime has already passed three crucial stages towards its downfall: inefficiency, leading to major crises of poverty, famine, environmental destruction, water shortages, and unemployment; illegitimacy, illustrated by the 2019 and 2022 protest massacres and daily executions;and psychological collapse, with the 2019 and 2022 uprising slogans proclaiming the end of the dictatorship and Khamenei. Effigies and statues of regime figures, including Khamenei and Qassem Soleimani (the strongest IRGC commander killed by a US drone strike in January 2020), have been burned thousands of times across Iran in recent years. Only the final stage, material, and concrete collapse, remains.
Material and Concrete Collapse
To date, several thousand resistance units have emerged in Iran, composed of members from all social strata and faiths, formed by residents of the same cities or villages. This makes them difficult to identify by the countless surveillance cameras and undercover agents. Despite constantly risking death, they orchestrated the 2023 election boycott. During the 2022 uprising, Khamenei faced part of their popular organizational power. Fearing these resistance sprouts spread across Iran, he attempted to divert attention by igniting the Gaza conflict as a shield.
Khamenei is now trapped in a cloud mass, and it seems highly unlikely that he will escape this time.
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Author: Hamid Enayat
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