Pollsters and pundits have been engaged in a long debate about how Biden or Trump might win the 2024 election, with much of their focus spent on the “swing state” electoral battlegrounds. While the winners of Alabama or California may be obvious, for instance, who wins Pennsylvania is a more difficult question.
Watch the above video as Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey dissects the debate on swing states and cuts a few of the less competitive ones off the list. In the end, Lindsey argues, this election may boil down to only a few individual states in the Great Lakes region.
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The following is an excerpt of the above video:
Now, the truth is, is that four of those seven really aren’t battlegrounds. The election’s decided, it’s the ones in the South and West that are that way. Just let me give you some statistics. What matters when you look at polls? It’s not is this person ahead of the other person, it’s by how much, and how consistently are they ahead? Because one poll can be an extreme outlier one way or the other. But if you see poll after poll after poll producing the same result, you can be more confident.
So, let me give you the statistics. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5.2 points on average. He has been ahead in the last 18 polls. And the last time Biden had an edge was April of 2023, over a year ago.
And it’s somewhat similar in Nevada. There, Trump has a 6.2% lead. He’s led in the last 15 polls. And it was last October that Biden first had an edge or last had an edge. As far as the polling numbers go in North Carolina, Trump is ahead by 5.4 points on average, has [a] lead in the last 16 polls. And you have to go back to last March, March ’23, for the last time that Biden led.
And finally, Georgia. Trump leads by 4.6 points. He has led in the last 21 polls in Georgia. The last time Biden was ahead was last November. So as you can see, the polling results are very consistent. And that suggests those are not really battleground states right now. They could become that way, but they’re not now.