Electoral victory margins are razor-thin as Republicans and Democrats watch demographics slowly coalesce around their candidates.
With just six months until Election Day, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck, tying 37-37. This deadlock occurs amidst a landscape where millions of American voters remain undecided.
Despite the entrenched polarization within the nation’s political landscape, a significant portion of registered voters remains open to shifting their allegiances. This is in addition to many significant electoral demographics who are slowly but surely revealing their intentions for the presidential race.
According to the poll, 24% of registered voters express a willingness to reconsider their choices before November’s election, while 12% have yet to make a definitive decision. Against the backdrop of sharp divisions on issues like abortion and immigration, as well as the unfolding criminal trial of a former president in New York, these findings illuminate the demographics most receptive to persuasion in the current political climate.
More interesting still is that 8% of respondents openly declared their support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This adds to a murky equation wherein an additional 5% of voters are staunchly backing a third-party candidate. But between these two subsections of voters (tallying around 13% total) most stated they were open to switching their vote before election day.
This latest poll indicates a gradual improvement in Biden’s position relative to Trump, albeit within the margin of error.
In January’s USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll, Biden trailed Trump by 3 points, with a score of 34% compared to Trump’s 37%. By March, this gap had narrowed further, with Biden trailing by just 2 points, at 38% to 40%. Now, they are deadlocked.
In voters under 35, Biden has increased by 1 percentage point while Trump has dropped by 12 since January. Biden currently leads 34% to 25%, although not by the significant margin he achieved in the 2020 election.
Among Hispanic voters, Biden’s support has remained steady, but Trump has seen an 11-point decline. Biden now leads 34% to 28%, though still falling short of the 2-1 advantage he secured in 2020.
Among independents, Biden has gained 5 points, while Trump has lost 4, resulting in a virtual tie with Trump at 27% and Biden at 26%. A considerable 22% remain undecided, and 23% are backing third-party candidates.
Among Black voters, Biden has gained 7 points since January, with Trump’s position unchanged. Currently, Black voters support Biden by 64% to 12%, an improvement from before but still significantly below the 87% who backed him in 2020.
Recent policy decisions and political advertisements from the White House have been strategically targeted at appealing to certain younger swing voters. These include plans to ease federal regulation of marijuana and alleviate some college student debt. Additionally, Biden is scheduled to deliver the commencement address at Morehouse College this month, further engaging with historically Black institutions.
In addition to Biden cementing his base, the viability of the aforementioned third-party candidates appears precarious.
A significant majority of supporters for Kennedy (80%), independent Cornel West (88%), the Libertarian nominee (65%), and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (58%) express a willingness to reconsider their choices before casting their votes.
Historically, support for third-party candidates tends to wane as Election Day approaches. However, in tight races, even the small number of votes garnered by these candidates, particularly in swing states, can have a decisive impact on the election outcome.
In the 2016 election, the Green Party candidate siphoned votes from Hillary Clinton in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which ultimately contributed to her loss.
Similarly, in 2020, the Libertarian candidate attracted voters away from Trump in critical states such as Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, all of which he ended up losing.
As the nation braces for the upcoming election, the closely contested race promises to keep voters on the edge of their seats until the very end.
The post New Poll Indicates Tight US Presidential Race and Shifting Voting Intentions appeared first on Resist the Mainstream.
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Author: Greg Zink
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