I’m working on a longer piece for tomorrow, but in the meantime, perhaps you’ll find the latest installment of Bob Wachter’s profoundly ridiculous Covid Chronicles amusing.
Some folks continue asking what I’m doing viz Covid behavior…
Answer: I’m changing my behavior. In the Bay Area, I’m now OK with indoor dining & removing my mask for small group gatherings.
I haven’t changed, the risk has. Here’s how: (1/25)
Remember as you read it that Dr. Wachter is a heavily decorated, leading academic:
1) I’m 65 & haven’t had Covid
2) I want to live as fully as I can, but am comfortable taking reasonable steps to avoid infection
3) I’m fully vaxxed & had bivalent in Sept
4) My main fear is Long Covid, which I peg at ~5% probability per Covid case. (3/25)
He believes case rates are still even remotely meaningful:
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 1013
As we enter Covid Year 3, it’s clear we’ll be in our current predicament for the foreseeable future. This means we all need to find our own method to weigh & mitigate risks.
Today I’ll describe my “50% Rule” & how it governs my choices. (1/25)
I’m reasonably sure that semi-professional Covid botherers like Eric Feigl-Ding are doing a bit, but I think Prof. Dr. Wachter has just totally lost his mind:
I’m having dinner indoors with wife & kids tonight in SF.
But we’re seeing older friends in Palm Springs this weekend: we’ll eat outdoors & test before we arrive. Ditto when I visit my 87 year old mom in FL next month (case rate in FL is twice CA’s, & going up). (19/25)
He’s going to be masking in public literally until he dies:
Plan to wear a mask (always a KN95; why not wear a good mask if you’re going to mask?), likely forever. I’m comfortable taking it off briefly to eat on a long flight, but will try to keep it on when I can.(20/25)
Poker – I’m now comfy playing with a small, vaccinated group (n=8) without testing. I’ll lobby (till they throw me out) to keep the doors/windows open during the game.
I’ll do the same with other small indoor gatherings (eg, friends at the house).(21/25)
In coming years, lingering hysteroids like Wachter will form their own class of socially obnoxious, demanding people – sort of like vegans, but massively worse, because they’ll never let you close the windows.
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