Lord Risby is Chairman of the Advisory Council of the Council on Geostrategy, and a former Conservative MP.
During the passage of the legislation to enlarge the European Union, Stanislaw Komorowski, the Polish Ambassador in London, presciently observed that if a European political and defence trajectory was not offered to and taken up by Ukraine, then its enormous neighbour would inevitably interfere.
In 2022, one week before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine agreed a memorandum of understanding to effect closer cooperation, identifying specifically cyber and energy security, countering disinformation, and supporting the Crimea Platform.
Last week three think-tanks, the Council on Geostrategy, the Polish Institute of International Affairs, and the Foreign Policy Council of Ukraine, having established a commission of experts in January 2023, launched a report comprehensively putting flesh on the bones of the original trilateral agreement, which of course had been overtaken by events.
In addition to focussing on how we and Poland can help to secure Ukrainian victory over Russia, the report highlights key coordinated and structural areas to pursue. It recommends that the British, Polish, and Ukrainian governments should reinforce and refresh this trilateral agreement with a focussed annual meeting, and to spread its importance, involve civil society leaders, parliamentarians, and the business community in this process.
Overriding this, the three heads of government together must rekindle the trilateral initiative in the first instance.
In defence matters, it recommends exploring joint production of ammunition, drones, and other war materiél, and constantly assessing and responding to any gaps in Ukraine’s military capabilities, alongside promoting greater Euro-Atlantic cooperation in providing required military and financial assistance. Examination should be further undertaken to enhance defence-industrial cooperation, critically including interoperability.
The sad truth is that some NATO allies dithered in responding to the huge dangers we all in Europe have been faced with. In response, the three countries should take on an enduring and focussed leadership role in promoting defence-industrial cooperation. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, our Chief of the Defence Staff, recently observed that the world has moved from being competitive to contested and is now openly combative.
There was universal applause amongst our friends and allies when our 2030 target of 2.5 per cent of GDP spending on defence was announced. This was a clear response to preventing future conflict with a country that has brutally attacked and occupied parts of another.
Poland has admirably led the way in a massive rearmament programme and is aiming to treble the number of armed service members to 300,000, deploying the latest military technology. Additionally, many believe that the rising importance and prosperity of Poland, a country emerging as a military and economic powerhouse, with whom we have an excellent bilateral relationship, will inevitably impact the balance of influence within the EU, traditionally led by France and Germany.
The issue of Ukraine’s future will remain inevitably linked to discussions about further EU enlargement, which may take many years. This trilateral format, including the UK, could help avoid this risk. Additionally, Ukraine’s relations with the United States, with its huge financial commitment to European defence will find in Poland and the United Kingdom pro-Atlanticists on hand to assist Ukraine on its post-conflict journey.
Renewed trilateral cooperation between the UK, Poland, and Ukraine is not only logical based on shared interests, but necessary in the Euro-Atlantic’s current geopolitical climate. As Ukrainian membership into the principal pillars of the region’s security architecture advances – namely NATO and the EU – the trilateral is positioned to be one of the premium avenues in ensuring Ukrainian success and preparing for post-war peace, leading to economic recovery and regeneration, led wherever possible by the private sector.
In the long-term, further cooperation promoted through this initiative can ensure that Europe in the future, into which Ukraine is integrated and Russia fully deterred, sends a clear message to those who have supported Russia in its naked aggression.
The groundwork has been analysed and laid out in the trilateral report. It should spur discussions as to what we now need functionally to do, establishing priorities, and making it an important element in our foreign and defence policy construct.
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Author: Lord Risby
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