Oddsmakers predict Trump’s chances at Nobel Prize win

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally nominated former U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his ongoing efforts to broker peace in the Middle East. Now, a number of people are turning to online betting and seeing if they can predict whether or not the commander-in-chief will receive the international award.

Netanyahu nominates Trump

The announcement came during a dinner meeting in the White House‘s Blue Room, where the two leaders and their top aides discussed Iran and a proposed 60-day ceasefire in Gaza. “He’s forging peace as we speak in one country, in one region after the other,” Netanyahu said, presenting Trump with a copy of the nomination letter. “It’s well deserved, and you should get it.” Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his desire to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, responded that the recognition was significant coming from Netanyahu.

Trump’s odds

The nomination has sparked renewed attention on Trump’s chances of winning the prestigious award. According to betting aggregator Oddschecker, Trump’s current odds of securing the prize range from 17/2 (10.5%) to 6/1 (14.3%), placing him as the second favorite among bookmakers. Leading odds makers including Ladbrokes and Coral list him at 6/1, while William Hill offers 11/2 (15.4%) and Sky Bet and Paddy Power give 17/2. Russian political figure Yulia Navalnaya, widow of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, remains the frontrunner for the prize following her husband’s death in prison last year. Trump’s candidacy reflects the high-profile yet polarizing nature of his international diplomacy. While his influence is undeniable, experts note that the Nobel Committee often weighs broader geopolitical implications and controversies surrounding nominees. Other contenders for the award include United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

The Nobel Peace Prize

Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize before. Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign committee, previously submitted his name but later withdrew the nomination, citing a loss of confidence in Trump’s ability to broker peace, particularly between Moscow and Kyiv. Throughout his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump claimed he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to office. However, in June, he acknowledged the challenge, stating that ending the conflict was “more difficult than people would have any idea.” Middle East analysts suggest the new nomination reflects the strategic ties between the former president and the Israeli prime minister. Eytan Gilboa, a U.S.-Israel affairs expert at Bar-Ilan University, told the Associated Press, “Trump thinks that Netanyahu owes him. And if Trump thinks that he needs to end the war in Gaza, then that is what he will need to do.”

Foreign policy

The Nobel Peace Prize has long been a sought-after accolade for world leaders aiming to solidify their legacies. For Trump, whose foreign policy achievements include the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states, Netanyahu’s endorsement may bolster his narrative as a global peacemaker ahead of the Nobel Committee’s deliberations. Whether the nomination will translate into a win remains to be seen. Still, the move underscores Trump’s ongoing role in high-stakes international diplomacy as conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to unfold.

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