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The Fed Could Create Late Day Volatility in Carvana’s Share Price
Jerome Powell is holding a press conference at 2:30 to discuss the Federal Open Market Committee’s July interest-rate decision.
Betting markets are placing a 99% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but commentary from Powell and other details will be important. There’s a chance that multiple Fed governors will vote against keeping rates locked.
The big picture: even without a rate cut, there could be significant volatility late in the trading day. If Carvana shares are moving, it’s likely unrelated to traders making earnings bets and more related to big money movements after Powell’s press conference.
What Wall Street Expects from Carvana’s Q2 Results
When Carvana reports tonight, Wall Street will be watching the following figures closely:
Wall Street Consensus Figures for Carvana’s Q2 Earnings
- Revenue: $4.59 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.14
- Free Cash Flow: $107 million
Carvana’s guidance is typically vague. Last quarter the company’s guidance was:
“Looking toward the second quarter, Carvana expects a sequential increase in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA , leading to all-time company records on both metrics. The company remains on track to deliver significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA 1 in FY 2025.”
So, while Wall Street analysts will try asking questions to refine their models, it’s not likely the company will move significantly on any forward guidance. Still, here’s what Wall Street expects for Carvana’s third quarter:
Wall Street Consensus Figures for Carvana’s Next Quarter
- Revenue: $4.65 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $1.20
- Free Cash Flow: $63 million
Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) is on one of the most epic rallies in stock market history. The stock was a poster child of the wild rally in 2021, eventually hitting more than $350 per share. It then collapsed to less than $5 per share in early 2023 and has since risen back near all-time highs. At market close last night, Carvna traded for $336.50 per share.
Can the rally continue? We’ll find out today when the company releases its second-quarter earnings. I’ll be watching news wires and posting news and analysis the moment Carvana’s earnings hit. All you have to do is keep a browser open with this page and updates will automatically load.
Let’s take a look at what the company reported last quarter, and we’ll post updates in the live blog detailing what Wall Street expects when Carvana reports after the bell.
What Carvana Reported Last Quarter
Here’s a look back at Carvana’s first quarter, which was released on May 7th. The stock is up 30% since releasing its first-quarter eanings.
CVNA | Carvana Q1’25 Earnings Highlights:
- Adj. EPS: $1.53
- Revenue: $4.232B [
]; UP +38% YoY - Net Income: $0.373B []
Outlook:
-
- Carvana expects a sequential increase in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025, leading to all-time company records on both metrics.
- The company remains on track to deliver significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA in FY 2025.
Q1 Segment Performance:
- Retail Units Sold: 133,898 units []; UP +46% YoY
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
- Adj. Operating Income: $0.394B []; UP +N/A% YoY
CEO Commentary:
- Ernie Garcia: “In Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years. We are incredibly well positioned for the path ahead and have very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences. As Carvana grows larger and more efficient, we look forward to making our offering even faster and more convenient, and sharing the value we create with our customers as we continue our mission of changing the way people buy and sell cars.”
Strategic Updates:
- Carvana announced its next management objective: to sell 3 million retail units per year at an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% within 5-10 years.
The post Live: Will Carvana’s (NYSE: CVNA) Q2 Earnings Continue Its Epic Rally? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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Author: Eric Bleeker
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