Top 10 Dem Contenders for 2028 – Newsom Leads the Pack

Still licking their wounds from former VP Kamala Harris being trounced this past Election Day and unable to mount any real attacks on President Trump’s agenda, the Dems are essentially a leaderless party. But as they continue to swallow the implications of a second Trump term, that will change in due course.

While the 2028 presidential field looks wide open so far out, some prominent Democrats have already been making moves that seem plainly geared toward the next presidential cycle.

Over the Labor Day Weekend, the Hill ranked the Democratic contenders and where they stand. For now, California Governor Gavin Newsom is leading the pack.

1. California Gov. Gavin Newsom

The California governor, never a shrinking violet, has ramped up his criticisms of Trump in recent weeks — to his apparent benefit.

Gavin Newsom has taken to trolling Trump on social media, often with postings that ape the president’s idiosyncratic and hyperbolic language.

In recent days, he has launched a line of merchandise in Trump’s signature red bearing slogans like “Newsom was right about everything” and declaring in all caps “Many people are saying this is the greatest merchandise ever made.”

Yet it’s not all fun and games. In a public conversation at a Politico forum late last week, he suggested Trump would run for an unconstitutional third term and called the president “simply the most destructive and damaging individual in my lifetime.”

The no-holds-barred approach appears to be paying off for Newsom. In a new national poll of Democratic primary voters from Emerson College, Newsom was well ahead of his two main rivals, Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Notably he had been third, behind both of them, when the same organization had conducted a poll in June.

There are, of course, Newsom skeptics. They question the electability of such a stereotypically Californian candidate in the battleground states of the Rust Belt and Southwest.

But for now, Newsom has catapulted himself to front-runner status.

2. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY)

If Democratic voters want to supplant their party establishment, make a generational change and shift to the left, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — “AOC” to fans and detractors alike — is the obvious choice.

The New York congresswoman drives plenty of Republican voters to apoplexy, of course. But voters who are even somewhat sympathetic to her policies view her as a charismatic and politically courageous figure who can take the fight to the GOP rather than getting stuck on defense.

Still only 35, Ocasio-Cortez is easily the most prominent Democratic politician of her generation, with an enormous social media following.

Her policies cast aside the center-leftism that has prevailed among most of the party’s upper reaches in recent decades, instead seeking Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and a federal job guarantee.

Is the platform too left-wing for battleground-state America — or the kind of agenda that can conjure up an excitement that has been lacking in Democratic politics since the Obama years?

Conservative Americans would be energized to oppose her. But the big crowds she drew alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at a series of rallies earlier this year demonstrate her appeal to progressives.

3. Former Vice President Kamala Harris

Harris will soon embark on a book tour to publicize her “107 Days” campaign memoir. The book’s title refers to the length of her campaign following then-President Biden’s dramatic decision to abandon his quest for reelection last year.

The book tour will also be a broad test of how much appeal Harris has among the Democratic base.

Despite her prominence — vice president, 2020 presidential candidate, and a senator from the nation’s most populous state — Harris remains something of an enigma.

The 2020 bid launched with massive fanfare but ultimately proved underwhelming. Her performance during her 2024 sprint had striking highs, as when she was widely judged the winner of her sole debate with Trump; and awkward lows, like when she was asked on ABC’s “The View” whether she would have done anything differently from Biden and averred that “not a thing comes to mind.”

If she goes forward with another bid for the presidency, much will depend upon which of two lenses Democratic voters view her through: a candidate who did her best in extremely difficult conditions in 2024 and could do better the second time around, or a politician who never quite lives up to her billing, and from whom the party ought to move on.

4. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore

Gov. Wes Moore recently found himself in a bizarre, Trump-related spotlight. The president claimed the Maryland governor had told him, at the Army-Navy football game late last year, that Trump was “the greatest president of my lifetime.”

Moore responded to that on social media with a simple “lol” and told a Maryland radio station that Trump was recounting an “imaginary conversation.” Video from the game broadcast by Fox News bore out Moore’s version of events, with no words close to what Trump had claimed being exchanged.

Moore has adopted a kind of Newsom-lite approach recently, tangling with Trump on social media. At 46 years old, he would bring some of the generational change of Ocasio-Cortez without nearly so left-wing a policy agenda.

Moore is not that well-known nationwide yet, however, which also means he hasn’t really been tested at the highest level.

5. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker

Gov. JB Pritzker is yet another Democratic governor who has locked horns with Trump — most recently over the president’s musings that he might deploy the National Guard to Chicago or increase the number of ICE agents in the city.

Pritzker last week told The Associated Press that it was “illegal, unconstitutional, frankly it’s un-American” to send troops into a major American city in the absence of an emergency. In an earlier statement, Pritzker accused Trump of trying to “manufacture a crisis” and “abuse his power.”

The combative Pritzker, a scion of the family that owns the Hyatt hotel chain, is vastly rich. Forbes estimates him to be the wealthiest political officeholder in America, with a net worth of $3.9 billion.

That could be a double-edged sword. He doesn’t have to worry about raising money from donors for a presidential campaign, but his wealth could make it harder for him to win over working-class Americans.

6. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been seen as a rising Democratic star for some time. Of late, she has been less openly antagonistic toward Trump than some of her party colleagues.

But that approach has had mixed results. She went viral in April for all the wrong reasons, using a folder to shield her face from photographers when she was in the Oval Office as Trump signed executive orders.

Whitmer has tried to laugh that off, and her broader argument is that her chief obligation is to look after the interests of her Michigan electorate.

Whitmer’s success in winning two terms in a key battleground state recommends her to many Democratic insiders. An authentic and engaging personality helps her, too.

Whitmer could face a problem not of her own making, however. Would the party be reluctant to nominate a woman after doing so twice in the past three election cycles — and losing both times?

7. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg is one of the best media performers in the party. He also has a strong appeal to the highly educated and affluent voters who are increasingly well-represented among the Democratic base.

Buttigieg was one of the surprises of the 2020 cycle, performing better in the primaries than many people had predicted.

But the highest elected office he has held is as mayor of South Bend, Ind. And in 2020, Buttigieg performed abysmally with Black voters, also a key part of the base.

8. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

One of the big “what ifs” of the 2024 Harris campaign revolves around Shapiro. Would he — the popular governor of a crucial battleground — have been a better choice as vice presidential nominee than her eventual running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz?

Shapiro is a polished and ambitious performer.

He could, however, fall victim to the party’s deep schism over Israel and its conduct in Gaza if that conflict remains salient for primary voters in the 2028 cycle.

Shapiro, who is Jewish, is one of the most pro-Israel voices in a party whose voters have shifted markedly toward the Palestinian cause.

An Economist/YouGov poll last week asked Americans which side they sympathize with more in the conflict. Just 15 percent of Democrats named Israel, while 44 percent aligned with the Palestinians.

Shapiro, who had at one stage drawn a clumsy comparison between pro-Palestinian protesters and the Ku Klux Klan, is not well-placed to navigate those crosscurrents.

9. Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)

The Connecticut senator could, at least in theory, offer a “best of all worlds” approach to Democratic voters.

Sen. Chris Murphy has been emphatic in his criticisms of Trump, whom he sees as a danger to democracy, and has made effective use of social media. But he’s also a broadly conventional senator who isn’t easy to characterize as outside the American mainstream.

The challenge for Murphy would be how to outshine some of the bigger names on this list.

10. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear

Gov. Andy Beshear has enjoyed remarkable success for a Democrat in a deep-red state.

He won reelection to a second term by 5 points in 2023. That’s noteworthy, to say the least, given Trump’s 26-point victory in the state in 2020 and his 31-point romp in 2024.

Beshear has built that electoral record in part by focusing on comparatively nonpartisan topics like infrastructure investment. But he has held the liberal line on at least one hot-button topic: in March, he vetoed a Republican bill that would have almost completely banned abortion in his state.

Could Beshear be a 2028 dark horse? Maybe. But it’s just as likely that primary voters want a more fiery and progressive standard-bearer.

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