Poll: Republicans Edge Out Democrats in 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot Among 2024 Voters

By Robert Romano

Among persons who voted in 2024, Republicans have pulled ahead of Democrats in the generic Congressional ballot, according to the latest poll from Emerson College taken Aug. 25 to Aug. 26, 46.4 percent to 44.9 percent with 8.6 percent undecided.

That is a point of improvement for Republicans and a point backward for Democrats compared to the July 21 to July 22 Emerson poll, when, among 2024 voters, Democrats narrowly led 46 percent to 45.2 percent, with 8.7 percent undecided.

And it’s 3 percentage points of improvement for the GOP compared to Emerson’s June poll, when Democrats led Republicans among 2024 voters 45.9 percent to 43.1 percent with 10.9 percent undecided.

As it is, when non-voters were included in each poll, the race leans more towards Democrats. But the lead is narrowing: Democrats led 42.5 percent to 39.8 percent in June, 44 percent to 41.5 percent in July and now just 43.3 percent to 43 percent in August.

And it’s not just the Emerson poll. In the national average of polls compiled by RealClearPolling.com, Democrats only lead 44.2 percent to 41.7 percent, just a 2.5 percentage point lead.

That is far behind where Democrats were in the 2006 and 2018 midterms, elections wherein Democrats regained the House and Senate in 2006 and the House in 2018.

In 2006, the average of polls had Democrats leading the generic Congressional ballot 52.1 percent to 40.6 percent, an 11.5 percentage point lead although that overstated the outcome a bit, with Democrats winning the House popular vote 52 percent to 44 percent.

And in 2018, the average of polls had Democrats ahead, 49.7 percent to 42.4 percent, a 7.3 percentage point lead, and Democrats won with 53.3 percent to 44.9 percent.

Midterm elections, particularly in the House of Representatives, usually go against whichever party occupies the White House — in midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2022, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 34 seats — and so if you’re President Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), you’re probably not hating the current numbers.

To be clear, so far the issue is mostly that of Democratic underperformance following the politically disastrous presidency of Joe Biden that saw high inflation outpacing incomes, rising violent crime and unprecedented levels of illegal immigration, with Democrats down by about 8 to 9 percentage points below where they were in 2006 and 2018, whereas Republicans are about where they were in both of those years.

The biggest gap identifiable is that of favorability, with Democrats polling at practically a record low of 32.2 percent in the latest average of polls, whereas Republicans have a slightly higher favorability of 40.6 percent. To be fair, majorities view both parties unfavorably, with 60.2 percent viewing Democrats unfavorably and 53.8 percent viewing Republicans unfavorably.

It could be that large numbers of voters still blame Democrats for the state of affairs that drove them out of power in 2024, particularly with inflation still cooling from its highs seen in 2022 and its effects still being felt. It could take some more time for voters’ moods to improve but with the midterms just a little more than a year away—after which all eyes will be on 2028 and the race for the White House — the hour grows late.

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.

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