Hanoi’s ‘Green’ Path to Poverty and Blackouts

Vietnam’s decision to prohibit gasoline-powered motorcycles in central Hanoi beginning July 1, 2026, is a textbook example of climate dogma disrupting developing economies with potentially devastating consequences.

The policy will take effect in Hanoi’s downtown districts, then expand to outer areas by 2027 and eventually include gasoline automobiles. Other urban centers, such as Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, are exploring similar bans in a national push to electric vehicles.

While cleaner air is a worthy goal, this policy – driven by global climate obsessions – imposes heavy financial burdens on Vietnam’s people and risks destabilizing an already strained electricity grid. Presented as a triumph for the environment, Vietnam’s action could turn out to be a reckless gamble with the livelihoods of millions and domestic energy security.

This Southeast Asian nation is not Europe, where two-wheeled vehicles are mostly recreational and secondary to cars. In Vietnam, two-wheelers fulfill 73% of Hanoi’s transportation needs. The country has more than 77 million registered motorized bikes and one of the world’s highest ownership rates. Vietnamese families typically have multiple motorcycles for daily commutes, school transportation, work duties and leisure. 

The government’s assault on this essential transportation network reveals a stunning disconnect from citizens’ needs. The cost of replacing gasoline motorbikes with electric alternatives is staggering for most families. 

“Everyone wants a better environment but why give us (this) burden without proper preparation?” one local resident said in expressing her frustration to France24. Her family would need to spend about $3,000 to replace its four motorbikes. That figure represents more than 40% of Hanoi’s per capita GDP (gross domestic product). For working-class households, this is more than an inconvenience; it is a financial impossibility.

Vietnam’s electricity infrastructure struggles to meet current demand, making mass motorcycle electrification a recipe for catastrophic grid failure. The country’s electricity consumption is projected to grow 10-12% annually through 2030 – among Asia’s fastest rates. For every 1% of economic growth, electricity demand increases 1.5%. With Vietnam targeting 7% annual economic growth, electricity requirements will surge far beyond current capacity.

Summer 2023 brought devastating outages when insufficient rainfall reduced hydropower generation, forcing factories and businesses to halt operations. The economic damage reached $1.4 billion, which is equivalent to 0.3% of Vietnam’s GDP. Northern Vietnam experienced rolling blackouts and sudden power cuts, with some businesses receiving little or no warning.

The country’s north, where the motorcycle ban begins, is under a particularly acute strain. Companies like Foxconn, Samsung and Canon have established major operations there, creating unprecedented electricity demand. The power shortage got so severe that authorities requested manufacturers to voluntarily reduce consumption by 30% during months of peak usage.

Vietnam asks existing industrial users to reduce consumption, yet plans to add millions of electric motorcycles to the grid. This represents central planning at its most delusional, ignoring mathematical reality in pursuit of green ideology.

“Authorities will not be able to stop the huge amount of gasoline bikes from entering inner districts,” says office worker Nguyen My Hoa, predicting enforcement difficulties. This assessment recognizes fundamental differences between Vietnamese and European urban contexts. Unlike European cities where motorcycles represent lifestyle choices, urban Vietnam depends on two-wheel transportation for economic survival.

Because Vietnam generates a large share of its electricity at coal- and natural gas-fired plants, every e-bike will run indirectly on fossil fuels. In effect, the ban will be a shift in the burning of fossil fuels from internal combustion engines to power plants. The so-called “environmental payoff” is negligible, if it exists at all, while the costs are immense.

The government frames its electric vehicle promotion as “essential for realizing green development objectives and fulfilling international commitments.” This is a bureaucratic admission to satisfying international environmental pressures at the expense of serving the needs of Vietnamese citizens.

Vietnam’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 is driving policies that ignore economics. The motorcycle ban represents everything wrong with contemporary climate policy: The ideological priorities of wealthy nations are imposed on populations who cannot afford them, supported by infrastructure that does not exist, and powered by energy systems already failing.

Vietnam’s leaders should choose economic sovereignty over environmental submission before irreparable damage is inflicted on their nation’s prosperity and their people’s welfare.