The national debt is projected to rise from 100% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at present to 120% of GDP by 2035, according to the latest figures from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan fiscal policy think tank, based on baseline budget data from the Congressional Budget Office.
The CRFB released an adjusted August 2025 baseline, which found that annual deficits will “remain above 6% of GDP throughout most of the decade,” which is “more than twice the 3% target advocated by some policymakers.”
The budget watchdog group estimated that bringing the federal deficit down gradually to 3% of GDP would require around $3.5 trillion in savings over five years, including interest, or $7.5 trillion over ten years.
“To hold debt at 100% of GDP, approximately $4 trillion is needed over five years, or $9 trillion over the decade,” read their analysis.
The CRFB found that achieving a deficit equal to 4% of GDP would require about $5 trillion in savings while balancing the full federal budget, including interest, would require about $15.5 trillion in total savings.
The watchdog group noted that economic growth alone cannot solely take the place of major fiscal policy changes to get the fisacl situation in the U.S. under control. The CRFB recommended that the U.S government implement “super PAYGO” as well as trust fund reform and other spending reduction initiatives.
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Author: Ray Hilbrich
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