Don’t delay recommitting to Pacific security plan

September 15 marks the fourth anniversary of the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) partnership established to develop an Australian nuclear submarine enterprise. Achieving this objective was never going to be easy or cheap, but all three parties are honoring their commitments and making progress.

The upside of AUKUS for America is twofold. It supports our goal to deter China from a war this decade, and it’s invigorating domestic American submarine construction with Australian money: over $800 million so far.

However, amid nagging concerns that American shipbuilders may be unable to meet the increased shipbuilding demand, the Department of Defense has initiated a review of AUKUS. The results are anticipated this fall, which the Australian Deputy Prime Minister, while at the recent Submarine Institute of Australia conference, welcomed as something that can bring added focus and improvement to the AUKUS enterprise.

For the time being, the question hangs in the air: Will leadership in the Pentagon recommend cancellation, modification, or maintaining the current course of action? The longer uncertainty clouds Washington’s commitment to AUKUS, the more progress and investments may stall. A prompt conclusion is needed to prevent costly second guessing.

Why Nuclear Submarines for Australia?

Since the peak of the Cold War, Australian naval leaders recognized their reliance on distant sea lanes necessitated the endurance and speed of nuclear submarines. But with the end of the Cold War, a compromise was made for the development of the conventionally powered Collins-class and its successor, the failed Attack-class program.

Until the advent of AUKUS, China did not exhibit significant concern over U.S. military presence in Australia. Beijing’s perception shifted with the prospect of an increased number of nuclear submarines nearby that it could not counter.

Consequently, there have been persistent reports of heightened Chinese naval presence in nearby waters and investments in the greater Perth area and HMAS Stirling, the naval base where AUKUS nuclear submarines will be stationed. As in other circumstances, such presence can facilitate intelligence gathering and provide a platform for United Front efforts to undermine local support for the AUKUS initiative. This isn’t a supposition; a 2019 scandal broke when elected officials were found to have connections to the Chinese Communist Party.

The overarching strategy for AUKUS, referred to as the “optimum pathway,” encompasses the deployment of increased American and British nuclear submarines to Stirling to sensitize the local community and build-up local infrastructure. A pivotal milestone is approaching, and substantial progress has been made, yet concerns remain.

In 2027, the inaugural U.S. and British nuclear submarines will establish a permanent presence at Stirling. Following a recent visit by this author, the base appears ready given success of several recent nuclear submarine visits, including an apparent unplanned repair stop. However, the establishment of a permanent base entails an additional challenge beyond hosting crews and submarine replenishment capabilities.

The proximity of nearby shipyards and the presence of a diverse range of local and foreign firms present a challenge. When the first nuclear submarine makes Stirling home, substantial shipyard capacity, particularly for a dry dock, will be required. Currently, this capacity is lacking and interfering commercial activity, necessitates a significant reorganization in and around the so-called Henderson Defence Precinct – the likely interim disruption this will cause can be mitigated with a floating dry dock.

For example, Henderson’s and Stirling’s facilities must simultaneously support the existing Collins submarine fleet, host an expanding fleet of surface warships, and potentially accommodate domestic production for Australia of Japan’s Mogami-class frigates. Consequently, relocating commercial activities from the naval shipyard and conducting planned naval maintenance and shipbuilding necessitates the immediate addition of shipyard capacity.

During a recent week-long visit by this author to the greater Perth region, it became evident that there is ample political support, 67% popular support, and substantial Australian resources dedicated. Nevertheless, it’s critical the intricate waterfront reorganization be resolved within a timely manner so that the arrival of the first nuclear submarine to Stirling isn’t compromised.

All told, the challenges ahead for AUKUS are well within Western Australia’s capacity to overcome, should Canberra and Washington stay the course. The only logical conclusion for the review in Washington is recommitting to AUKUS and making any needed adjustment, since an AUKUS success is a win for Americans.

Brent Sadler is a Senior Research Fellow for Naval Warfare and Advanced Technology at The Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center for National Security.