Trump caught lying about tariffs raking in trillions

President Donald Trump has claimed his tariffs are bringing in “trillions of dollars,” a figure that vastly overstates current government revenue but aligns with some overly optimistic long-term estimates spanning the next decade.

Trump on Truth Social

“Trillions of dollars are being taken in on tariffs,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that the levies have “not caused inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.” In reality, tariffs are paid by U.S. importers — costs that often get passed on to American consumers through higher prices. Treasury Department data shows that the U.S. has collected $142 billion in tariff revenue so far this fiscal year, which ends in September. Since Trump’s tariffs were enacted in April, they have generated approximately $96 billion in revenue. Revenue from customs duties rose sharply to $28 billion in July, up from $27 billion in June, $22 billion in May, and $16 billion in April. In contrast, before the levies took effect, customs duties totaled just $8 billion in March and $7 billion in both January and February.

Customs duties

Customs duties are taxes imposed on goods entering the U.S., typically paid by companies and businesses at the border. Economists note that consumers ultimately shoulder much of the burden when businesses raise prices to cover the added expense. Even members of Trump’s administration have offered more measured projections. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that tariffs are expected to generate about $300 billion annually, adding “there’s a chance that could be higher” in 2026. The Tax Foundation estimates that the levies could raise roughly $2.5 trillion over 10 years, although it warns that households may bear the price. Their analysis suggests tariffs will increase average household tax burdens by nearly $1,300 in 2025 and $1,700 in 2026.

Trump’s tariffs

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a policy nonprofit, projects tariffs could contribute $2.8 trillion to gross domestic product by fiscal year 2034 if maintained at current levels. Despite Trump’s assertion that tariffs have not fueled inflation, recent data points to rising consumer costs. Inflation slowed more than expected to 2.7% in July, yet core consumer prices — which exclude food and energy — climbed 3.1% year-over-year, matching January’s peak. JPMorgan Chase’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, cautioned earlier this year that Trump’s levies would cause “meaningfully larger increases” in consumer prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also expressed uncertainty, stating last month that while the economy is in a “solid position,” the long-term effects of tariffs “remain to be seen.”

Tariff revenue

Trump has floated the idea of using tariff revenue to send direct rebate checks to Americans. Last month, he said his administration would “consider” the move. Following his comments, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced legislation that would provide at least $600 to each eligible adult and dependent child this year. The bill proposes reducing payments by 5% for joint filers with incomes above $150,000, heads of household with incomes over $112,500, or individuals with incomes exceeding $75,000. Larger rebates would be possible if revenue surpasses expectations. The measure, however, has yet to be taken up in Congress.

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