New poll shows Stefanik gaining on Hochul for New York governorship

Representative Elise Stefanik has narrowed Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead in New York, according to a new Siena College survey. Knewz.com has learned that the survey found Hochul’s advantage slipping from 23 points in June to 14 points in August, raising questions about Democratic strength in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2002.

‘Room for movement’

Kathy Hochul became New York’s first female governor in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation over harassment allegations. She secured a full term in 2022 after defeating Republican Lee Zeldin in the closest gubernatorial race in nearly three decades. Despite Democrats’ enrollment advantage – 49% compared to 23% for Republicans – the Siena poll suggests that Republicans still have room to compete, especially when independents lean away from Hochul. “No Republican has won in New York State since 2002, when George Pataki won his third term,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “It’s an uphill battle for any Republican going up against any Democrat in the state of New York. That said, Hochul only beat Zeldin three years ago by six points, so there is room for movement.”

Poll results show a tightening race

The Siena poll of 813 registered voters found Hochul leading Stefanik 45 to 31%, down from a 47 to 24% advantage in June. Nearly half of voters reported being at least somewhat familiar with Stefanik, though only 29% said she has the right experience to be governor. A 49 to 37% margin of respondents said her election would be bad for New York. Still, Hochul’s personal numbers have slightly improved. Her favorability now sits at 42 to 44%, compared to 42 to 47% in June. Her job approval rating also rose to 53 to 42%, up from 50 to 45%. Stefanik’s ratings remain lower, with 27% favorable, 32% unfavorable, and 41% of voters saying they do not know or have never heard of her. Greenberg pointed out that Republican voters have consolidated behind Stefanik, while independents have shifted from supporting Hochul by seven points in June to backing Stefanik by three points in the new poll. “It shows opportunity and warning for both candidates,” he said.

A sign of momentum

Stefanik’s team framed the poll as a sign of momentum. “The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik,” said Team Elise Executive Director Alex DeGrasse. “Chairwoman Elise Stefanik will continue to focus on providing results such as delivering the largest middle-class tax cut in New York history. She will repeal Kathy Hochul’s failed bail reform and dangerous sanctuary cities policies and cut taxes for New Yorkers.” Hochul pushed back on X, writing, “Massive price hikes are coming for New York families because of Donald Trump’s tariffs. Sellout Stefanik supports them. Why? She’d rather score political points with Trump than fight for you. I’m putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets.”

The Siena poll also scanned the NY mayoral race

The poll also measured the scenario in New York City’s mayoral race. Democrat Zohran Mamdani led with 44%, compared to 25% for independent Andrew Cuomo, 12% for Republican Curtis Sliwa, and 7% for incumbent independent Mayor Eric Adams. Younger voters under 35 strongly favored Mamdani, while older voters leaned toward Cuomo. These results suggest that statewide and citywide races are both being shaped by generational divides and shifting independent support. Greenberg emphasized that independents, 35% of whom are for Stefanik and 32% for Hochul, with a large portion still undecided, could prove decisive.

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