Live: Will Coinbase (COIN) Post a Big Earnings Beat After Hours?

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How Coinbase Stock Performed After Recent Earnings

12:29 pm

COIN shares have shown sharp volatility around earnings, with massive upside in Q4 2024 but notable drawdowns in more recent reports. The market remains highly reactive to subscription trends and crypto liquidity.

Quarter	EPS Surprise	1-Day Move	7-Day Move	14-Day Move
Q1 2025	–87.56%	–6.2%	–11.9%	–15.8%
Q4 2024	+129.41%	+13.7%	+17.4%	+22.2%
Q3 2024	–33.33%	–5.3%	–7.1%	–9.4%
Q2 2024	–82.50%	–4.8%	–5.5%	–6.1%

What Wall Street Expects in the Second Quarter

10:58 am

Now that we’ve taken a look back at Coinbase’s first quarter, let’s look at what Wall Street expects in Q2:

• Revenue: $1.594 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $1.49
• EPS (GAAP): $1.51
• Free Cash Flow: $525.5 million

Looking ahead to Q3 (Coinbase will provide outlook on select metrics like subscription revenue and various expenses that will be used to fill in models for next quarter), here’s what Wall Street expects looking forward:

• Revenue: $1.689 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $1.25
• EPS (GAAP): $1.33

Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) reports earnings after the bell tonight. The ‘tea leaves’ look good headed into the company’s Q2 earnings. Robinhood (Nasdaq: HOOD) delivered excellent earnings last night, although the stock is flat today because its run up so much this year. 

Then there’s the price and interest in cryptocurrencies themself. Bitcoin remains at all-time highs while investors have piled into XRP and many altcoins are seeing record highs. 

To receive updates once Coinbase’s earnings go live, simply leave this page open and new updates will automatically post. We expect to post a flurry of news and analysis once Coinbase reports after the bell. 

With that, let’s look at what Coinbase delivered when they last reported earnings. 

A Look Back at Coinbase’s First Quarter Earnings 

Coinbase last reported earnings on May 8th. The stock soared in the days following its earnings and is now up 86% since. Here’s what they reported:

COIN | Coinbase Global, Inc. Q1’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Diluted EPS: $0.24 ; DOWN -95% YoY
• Revenue: $2.0B []; DOWN -10% QoQ
• Net Income: $66M []; DOWN -94% YoY
• Adjusted Net Income: $527M;
• Adjusted EBITDA: $930M; DOWN -8% YoY
• Total Operating Expenses: $1.3B; UP +7% QoQ
• Total Transaction Revenue: $1.3B; DOWN -19% QoQ
• Subscription and Services Revenue: $698M; UP +9% QoQ
• Average USDC Held in Coinbase Products: $12.3B; UP +49% QoQ
• Total USD Resources: $9.9B; UP +7% QoQ

Q1’25 Outlook:

• Subscription and Services Revenue: $600-$680M []
  • We anticipate Q/Q growth in stablecoin revenue to be more than offset by a decline in blockchain rewards revenue due to lower asset prices.
  • Transaction expenses are expected to be in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenue.

Q1 Segment Performance:

• Transaction Revenue – Consumer: $1.1B; DOWN -19% QoQ
• Transaction Revenue – Institutional: $99M; DOWN -30% QoQ
• Other Transaction Revenue: $68M; FLAT QoQ
• Subscription and Services Revenue – Stablecoin: $298M; UP +32% QoQ
• Subscription and Services Revenue – Blockchain Rewards: $197M; DOWN -9% QoQ
• Subscription and Services Revenue – Other: $141M; UP +5% QoQ

Other Key Q1 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $705.8M
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $1.3B
• Effective Tax Rate: 20% (vs. 22% YoY)
• Full-Time Employees: 3,959; UP +5% QoQ

CEO Commentary:

• Brian Armstrong: “We had strong Q1 results, gained market share, and generated $2.0 billion in revenue, $66 million in net income, and $930 million of Adjusted EBITDA. Our focus remains on expanding real-world crypto utility and strengthening our trading platform.”

CFO Commentary:

• Aisha Evans: “Our balance sheet strengthened, ending Q1 with $9.9 billion in $USD resources. We are committed to maintaining financial discipline while investing in our long-term growth strategy.”

Strategic Updates:

• Coinbase announced the acquisition of Sentillia B.V. (Deribit) for approximately $2.9 billion, which is expected to enhance profitability and diversify trading revenues.
• Coinbase secured critical registrations in Argentina and India, expanding its global presence and market share.
• New offerings like Bitcoin-backed USDC loans and enhancements to Coinbase One are driving customer engagement and utility.

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