+McCullough is right in his title and to the point:

‘JAMA Modeling Study Claims COVID-19 Vaccines Saved Lives: Seven Threats to Validity

Debunked by Flawed Assumptions, Uncontrolled Confounding, and Institutional Bias’

Fact is that up to today, not one RCT randomized trial placebo controlled in adults or children have been completed using patient-important outcomes such as death, hospitalization, ICU, severe outcomes etc. Not one. All the Pfizer Moderna research have been stopped early for benefit, which is a flag for biased estimates of effect, over-estimation, as well as under-powered, did not run to duration, small event outcome number, wrong outcomes that were not patient-important to inform us etc. e.g. death. Subjects omitted from Pfizer study as an example that biased the calculations to show benefit but RRR of what? Certainly not of patient-important outcomes like death and now no study can be conducted for the population baseline risk of infection or disease is near zero if not zero so no research can happen that would provide meaningful estimates.

I add that this is the key, that these people take antibody titers and elevated levels as a proxy or strong one for immune protection and importantly they erroneously translate that into a mortality protection etc. Surges in antibody levels does not translate to immune protection especially when we know fully that the vaccine does not stop infection, replication, or transmission. Moreover, outcomes such as mortality happens to be the patient-important outcomes we are interested in. Not antibody levels. McCullough’s 7 is excellent, add to it healthy vaccinee effect bias that has plagued all of the corrupted bogus studies, does not control and adjust for massive residual confounding (distorting factors) variables, or effect of co-morbidity on the outcomes etc.

What is the basis John? The modelling and conclusions seem very flawed when we look at the threats to validity and more. The paper hedges by saying the gains are in the elderly population. Yet we are dealing with a vaccine that was applied to the entire population, infants to elderly and it was ineffective and deadly. The Malone mRNA Pfizer Moncef Sahin Weissman et al. Bourla Bancel Moderna et al. vaccine failed, was non-sterilizing, non-neutralizing, and did not protect the upper airways. I have always admired John I and his scholarship, but this is flawed interpretation in this modelling. I stand with McCullough here as to the threats to validity:

Debunked by Flawed Assumptions, Uncontrolled Confounding, and Institutional Bias

McCullough here:

Nearly six years into the COVID-19 vaccine debacle the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex is desperately reaching for some justification for the immunization campaign. The public understands the vaccines are not safe, and were not effective in stopping SARS-CoV-2 infection or preventing transmission. However, the final claim by the Complex making global vaccination “all worth it” is the refrain “vaccination saved lives.” A recent modeling study by Ioannides et al was appeared in JAMA, a journal exclusively published only favorable manuscripts on COVID-19 vaccination.

In the main analysis, more than 2.5 million deaths were averted (1 death averted per 5400 vaccine doses administered). Eighty-two percent were among people vaccinated before any infection, 57% were during the Omicron period, and 90% pertained to people 60 years or older.

Study in question:

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