The man who once claimed he could end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office appears to be finally losing patience with the Kremlin. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that he was shortening his former 50-day peace deadline; from then on, Trump insisted, Putin had just “10 or 12 days” to move toward peace.
The Kremlin has thus far shown no signs of easing off its offensive campaign against Ukraine. Indeed, it is pummelling its neighbour with rocket and drone attacks almost nightly. But for once, Trump’s MAGA supporters, who have been sceptical toward granting Ukraine aid and even supportive of Vladimir Putin, have shown little signs of disagreement. The loudest voices, such as that of Senator Lindsey Graham, have promised that the President means business: “To those in Russia who believe that President Trump is not serious about ending the bloodbath between Russia and Ukraine: You and your customers will soon be sadly mistaken… Get to the peace table.”
Will the sheer strength of Trump’s nerve, backed up by the threat of a more united Republican Party, yet more American military support for Ukraine, and further sanctions against Russia, be enough to finally force Putin to retreat? The reaction in both Russian diplomatic and political circles, and in the social media spaces where hundreds of state-aligned and funded influencers, bloggers, and “grassroots” news services disseminate opinions on the war against Ukraine, suggests not. Trump’s once enviable stock has plummeted in the Russian patriotic sphere, which now treats “grandpa Donny” as a flaccid figure of fun and laughs off his threats of repercussions.
The transformation of Trump’s image in the Russian public eye has taken place at lightning speed. During Trump’s first four years in the White House, Russia was disappointed by the American President’s coolness toward the Kremlin. However, the promise of a newly combative Trump returning to power and pulling the rug from under Ukraine sent Russian hopes sky high. Moscow sent a string of positive signals in the wake of Trump’s inauguration, congratulating the leader and indicating its readiness to talk terms not just on Ukraine but on Russia’s re-entry into the global financial and political elite. Mere weeks ago, Russian politicians were still sprinkling their public pronouncements with praise for a leader they considered, if not quite Putin’s equal, then at least the kind of old-fashioned quasi-authoritarian with whom they could do business.
A series of phone calls between Putin and Trump, in which the former wished his opposite number every “success” at home and committed to collaboration and cooperation, had been heralded by the Russian President himself as “very constructive”. After all, as Putin put it in late June, Trump was just like him: a man who had battled the liberal enemy to seize power, who wanted to put his country on the right track at any cost, and who was, “a manly fellow, that much is clear”. The two men were, as one Kremlin aide put it, “on the same wavelength”: together the strongmen would bring Ukraine to heel, carve up assets and influence, and humiliate liberal factions across Europe.
The so-called “Runet” — the parallel network of Russian-language web and social media spaces that dominates the country’s online life — embraced Trump in exactly these terms. He was the sort of man who, even if they disagreed on some aspects of policy, at least respected and understood Russian nationalism and Russia’s war against Ukraine. Images of Putin and Trump conversing on equal terms, memes depicting Trump as an all-American hero crushing the liberals (often sourced from MAGA groups on Truth Social and other pro-Trump networks), and commentary anticipating a deal that would wrap up the war to Russia’s benefit proliferated.
When Trump all but kicked Volodymyr Zelensky out of the Oval Office in February, the Runet went wild. Trump had bested the “little pig” Zelensky; he had emasculated Russia’s ur-enemy.
Yet Trump’s “10 to 12 days” demand has transformed his image on the Runet. A flood of derisive material has dismissed the President’s ultimatum and belittled him in terms equivalent to those formerly reserved for Joe Biden and Barack Obama — in Russia, Biden is derided as a befuddled, powerless old man with no grasp on reality, while Obama is mocked in racist terms and called a liberal cuckold. Ivan Kondakov, a popular nationalist social media influencer who has appeared on state TV, penned a poem mocking Trump: “Each of us got lots done through the day/Sorted the mess, did work the right way/But Trump just sat there losing it,/Running his mouth, talking total shit.” An AI-generated image that has gone viral in Russia shows an exhausted Trump in a therapist’s office: “And how long has it been since you last made peace?” the therapist asks. “A week,” Trump says. “Now I really want to un-make peace with somebody.” Far from being the “manly” figure praised by Putin and the Russosphere in recent months, Trump has been cast as the fool: a leader incapable of making up his mind, and who is roundly ignored by the resolutely robust and powerful Russia.
Many of these Runet posts are followed by a cacophony of derisive comments and reams of laughter emojis: “He came up with his own ultimatum and now he can stew in it. Donny the bullshit artist”; “The orange guy’s lying. In reality, Putin told him to fuck off. The orange guy’s just hiding it.” Gone from the Runet is Trump the strongman. In his place is a pathetic figure who is dominated by Putin and whose tantrums and threats are as easy to ignore as they are to laugh at.
Naturally, Russia’s chaotic social media sphere does not dictate Moscow’s foreign policy, nor will much of this material ever reach the eyes and ears of Trump. However, a threat made in the realm of international relations rests on credibility: will the politician or country making the threat actually follow through? The more Trump shifts from one position to another without taking action against Russia, the more likely it is that Putin will call his bluff. In the early days of his second presidency, Trump appeared to have a chance to exert his will to bring the war in Ukraine to an end or at least a standstill — whether by working with Putin or against him. But the more he flip-flops, the more he turns into a figure that the Kremlin will ignore.
Perhaps even Trump subconsciously recognises the limits of his will. Reflecting on his latest ultimatum, he wondered aloud: “I dunno if it’s going to affect Russia.” He may not know what comes next, but the patriotic segments of Russia’s public and politicians are far more certain: they believe that Trump is an emperor with no clothes, and that Putin has bested yet another American president.
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Author: Ian Garner
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