Can BigBear.ai Stock Get Back to $10 This Year?

Data analytics software company BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) provides artificial intelligence (AI) services for security, defense, and other applications. In an uncertain world, BigBear.ai offers technology-driven solutions and many investors are intrigued by BBAI stock. 

It’s been a roller-coaster ride for BigBear.ai’s shareholders in 2025 so far. The stock appears to be staging a comeback, with BBAI stock bulls hoping to revisit the key $10 level.

Don’t make any assumptions, though. BigBear.ai’s fundamentals aren’t perfect, and the company will soon face a major test that could shift investor sentiment in any direction.

Hoping for a Repeat Performance

The $10 objective seems achievable in 2025’s second half because the stock has already been there this year. Back in February, BBAI stock broke above $10 and reached a 52-week high price of $10.36.

Bullish-leaning traders would undoubtedly like to see a repeat performance. Indeed, a comeback may be underway as BigBear.ai stock has rebounded from $2.50 in April to more than $7.50 recently.

Investors shouldn’t make any assumptions, however. A moonshot to $10 earlier this year doesn’t guarantee a similar rally now. Since BBAI stock has already tripled from $2.50 to $7.50 during the past few months, this probably isn’t a good time to be greedy.

Still, anything is possible and BigBear.ai stock might still have some gas in the tank. The summertime meme stock craze could push BBAI stock above $10, though meme stocks are known for getting crushed after the mania wears off.

Instead of hoping that BigBear.ai stock becomes a meme stock and gets the short-squeeze treatment, it’s better to concentrate on BigBear.ai as a business enterprise. Pay attention to the news and look for positive press releases from BigBear.ai.

For example, the company recently formed partnerships in the areas of airport threat detection and AI-enhanced military drone technology. If BigBear.ai continues to impress the market with value-added collaborations, BBAI stock might actually hit $10 in a matter of weeks.

A Big Test Is Coming

Still, even if BigBear.ai puts out more positive press releases, BBAI stock could rise or fall soon because a major event is coming. It’s a make-or-break quarterly report that could create a long-lasting sentiment shift for BigBear.ai stock.

Let’s back up for a moment, though. In May, BigBear.ai released its first-quarter 2025 earnings results. During that quarter, BigBear.ai’s revenue improved 5% year over year to $34.757 million.

BigBear.ai primarily attributed the 5% increase to “additional revenue related to Department of Homeland Security and Digital Identity awards.” Given the massive rally in BBAI stock over the past several months, investors should want to see faster revenue growth in the next quarterly report.

Also, bear in mind that BigBear.ai isn’t a profitable business. The company recorded a $61.986 million net loss in Q1 2025, though this is an improvement over the $127.792 million loss from the year-earlier quarter.

Looking at this from a different perspective, BigBear.ai narrowed its net loss from $0.68 per share in 2024’s first quarter to $0.25 per share in Q1 of 2025. That sounds pretty good, but BigBear.ai acknowledged that one-time goodwill impairment charges of $85 million (which happened in Q1 2024 and weren’t repeated in Q1 2025) primarily drove this bottom-line improvement.

The point is that BBAI stock has already tripled but BigBear.ai’s first-quarter data wasn’t tremendously impressive. Something special needs to happen soon, and BigBear.ai’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report could be a crucial catalyst as it’s set for release on August 11.

It Makes Sense to Wait

Based on four analysts’ estimates, Wall Street hopes to see BigBear.ai grow its revenue 3.52% year over year to $41.18 million in 2025’s second quarter. This would represent substantial improvement over the $34.757 million in revenue that BigBear.ai reported for Q1.

To put it another way, BigBear.ai won’t need to pull off a miracle, but the company remains a “show-me” story until proven otherwise. Unless the meme stock trend prompts an unexpected melt-up, the most obvious near-term catalyst for BBAI stock will be the imminent quarterly report.

If you’re only trading a few shares, then it might be fine to roll the dice and hope for a strong earnings report. However, serious investors should be patient and wait to see the quarterly results before taking any action.

A combination of positive press releases, a better-than-anticipated quarterly report, and optimistic broad-market sentiment could push BigBear.ai stock back to $10 this year. It’s hasty to assume that the stars will align in the coming weeks, though.

Therefore, it’s wise to hold off, check the upcoming quarterly release and the market’s reaction, and let the chips fall where they may. $10 may be in the cards, but getting there won’t be easy and BigBear.ai has more what-ifs than done deals.

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