As investors applaud Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and its top boss Jensen Huang on becoming the first company to surpass a $4 trillion valuation, questions linger as to whether or not another firm has what it takes to pick up the speed to challenge Nvidia in the race to $5 trillion. As it stands, the GPU titan boasts a market cap of $4.2 trillion. And with its stock in breakout mode, perhaps the first to $4 trillion will also be the first to $5 trillion.
Key Points
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Nvidia broke the $4 trillion market cap mark first. Microsoft looks poised to be second.
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Microsoft isn’t just the closest to hitting the milestone; it has the right drivers (AI and cloud) in place to pick up speed in this second half.
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However, given the intensity of its pullbacks and the potential for some of its cheaper rivals to pick up traction as some of their timelier and less appreciated catalysts, perhaps it’s not a given that Nvidia will be the first to hit the next big milestone, especially now that investors are already expecting great things from its Rubin family of chips. Time will tell if Nvidia’s epic rally can take it to even greater heights. Though I think its rally has legs, I think Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) will be breathing down its neck in the second half of 2025.
Microsoft stock has been just as hot as Nvidia so far this year. It could have more room to run.
Indeed, shares of MSFT have been outpacing the S&P 500 so far this year, with a 22% year-to-date gain, which is pretty much on par with NVDA stock. With a more modest multiple (MSFT stock goes for 33.9 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E)) and some timely drivers that could fuel further momentum for the enterprise AI behemoth, I wouldn’t count Microsoft and its top boss Satya Nadella out of the race as it gets closer to joining Nvidia in the $4 trillion market cap club.
Recently, Jefferies referred to Microsoft as a “top AI winner,” citing enterprise momentum in Copilot as a major driver that could drive shares to $600 per share and comfortably north of a $4 trillion market cap.
Indeed, as enterprise-grade AI software gets more of a boost in the second half, Microsoft is one of the more obvious beneficiaries. In recent quarters, the enterprise darling has been really investing heavily in further improving Copilot.
Whether we’re talking about greater customization via Copilot Tuning, more seamless integration across the 365 suite, or the rise of “teams” of AI agents, it’s clear that Microsoft has a golden opportunity to bring its many loyal enterprise users into the next chapter of the AI boom. Indeed, Copilot is a big deal. And why it hasn’t blasted off yet, it’s enjoyed a ton of upgrades of late. As AI features become more deeply embedded in everyday work, perhaps Microsoft is ready to take the ball into the endzone when it comes to AI at work.
This Wall Street veteran also thinks Microsoft is next to join the “$4 trillion market cap club.”
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has a track record of making pretty spot-on predictions. He also thinks Microsoft is next up to the plate to hit a $4 trillion valuation. His reason? Growth to be had from AI and momentum in the cloud. He sees it helping propel Microsoft to the milestone in the summer. Like Jefferies, he has a $600.00 price target and thinks the latest rally has legs.
Even as the relationship with OpenAI gets a little bit rockier, Microsoft may already be well-equipped to move on with its own impressive models (think MAI and Phi) that are more than capable of catching up.
Either way, I don’t think there’s stopping the enterprise giant from passing the $4 trillion mark. As it stands, the firm is just over 5% away from hitting the milestone. And, as Ives predicts, it’s just a matter of time before the great Nvidia has company as focus shifts to the $5 trillion market cap milestone.
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Author: Joey Frenette
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