Why Ohio? A Bellwether in the Past, Present, and Future  

The Buckeye State is right in the middle of the country. Elites hopping from coast-to-coast fly right over. But to truly understand our current political moment, and what it could lead to in the future, look away from California and New York and focus on Ohio. 

As was just announced, I’ve joined The Daily Signal to serve as the Ohio correspondent. As the second state correspondent for the publication, I think it’s worth explaining why Ohio is taking an outsized role in our national politics.  

As the Midwest goes, so does the power in Washington, D.C. Some of these states, like Illinois, are sapphire blue; others, like neighboring Indiana, are ruby red. But the region’s swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio—often determine who takes up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. For decades, Ohio’s results seemed most conclusive. In 2020, former President Joe Biden became the first president to lose Ohio and win the presidency since former President John F. Kennedy. 

While former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012, President Donald Trump won the state by eight points in both 2016 and 2020. Trump’s margins of victory were so large in those elections that by 2024, some no longer considered Ohio a swing state. This prognostication proved correct. With Ohio-native Vice President JD Vance accompanying him on the ticket, Trump expanded his margin of victory to over 11 points. 

As a new red state, Ohio may not be the deciding factor in presidential elections it once was. Perhaps more importantly, however, is that Ohio has been a leading indicator of the broader right-ward shift happening across America. Ohio’s public figures—its representatives in Washington, its leaders in Columbus, its communities and universities—deserve our attention. 

Ohio is heading for a pivotal gubernatorial race in 2026. Gov. Mike DeWine, the current Republican governor, is term-limited. DeWine won reelection by 25 percentage points, during an election cycle in 2022 where, for many jurisdictions, a red wave failed to materialize. 

While DeWine is considered something of an establishment figure, his potential successor, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is anything but.  

Ramaswamy ran for president in 2024 but dropped out in Iowa and endorsed Trump. The once primary opponent turned ally quickly earned Trump’s endorsement in the gubernatorial race, and from the Ohio GOP.  

Democrats are still looking for their candidate, but former Rep. Tim Ryan is a possibility. Politico also recently profiled Amy Acton, “Ohio’s Anthony Fauci.” 

The outcome of the next gubernatorial election will speak to not only the Ohio’s red-state status, but national electoral trends in a Republican Party post-Trump.  

The likely scenario of going from DeWine to Ramaswamy presents a fascinating case study in the evolution of the Republican Party. Trump’s politics have redefined the Republican Party as a whole. Ramaswamy will run in Trump’s image.  

If elected for two terms, Ramaswamy can serve until the next governor takes office after the 2034 election. Ramaswamy, who is just about to turn 40, also has a further sense of longevity to him given his young age.  

Nevertheless, there are still some less than red spots in the Buckeye State. Although we don’t have any official members of “the squad” representing Ohio, Rep. Shontel Brown of Ohio’s 11th Congressional District in Cleveland is just as far to the left. At the same time, several of the GOP’s conservative firebrands call the Buckeye State home. Rep. Jim Jordan, for example, represents Ohio’s 4th Congressional District and chairs the House Judiciary Committee. 

We also are a state where our abortion policy is in line with bright blue ones like California. A woman—or even a minor—can have an abortion for nearly any reason at any point of her pregnancy. Ohio voters were duped into voting for a ballot initiative in favor of this policy in 2023, when pro-choice, out-of-state forces poured significant money and energy into these efforts and engaged in misleading tactics. 

Ohio also has exciting relevance when it comes to federal politics, as well as some fascinating historical trivia.  

It’s not merely the gubernatorial election that will be worth watching in 2026. We have major battleground races going through Ohio. In March, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a target list of 26 seats. Two come out of Ohio, including seats held by Democrat Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th Congressional District and Emilia Sykes of Ohio’s 13th Congressional District. Both barely won reelection last November, with Kaptur winning by 0.7 percentage points and Sykes by 2.2 percentage points.  

Kaptur, 79, is a poster child for term limits. She was first elected in 1982 and recently earned mockery for falling asleep behind House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., during his “magic minute” speech last week when he tried to stall passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  

Vance is also from Ohio. This is the birthplace of seven U.S. presidents. If Vance is the Republican nominee and emerges victorious in 2028, we’ll have our eighth one, and the first since President Warren G. Harding was elected in 1920. Vance has more going for him other than being one of our youngest vice presidents. He’s also, as Trump shared, one of the “tremendous people” who is the future of MAGA. Further, polls show Republicans want Vance as their nominee for 2028.  

Vance was replaced in the U.S. Senate by DeWine’s lieutenant governor, Jon Husted. That means Sen. Bernie Moreno is Ohio’s senior senator, though only by a few days.  

In one of the true “toss-up” races last November, which also led to Republicans flipping control of the upper chamber, Moreno defeated now former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, winning that race by 3.6 percentage points. Brown comfortably won reelection in 2018 by 6.8 percentage points. What Brown supposedly had going for him is that he was a Blue Dog Democrat, representing an era when the Democratic Party represented working-class people, who have since voted for Republicans. If this election thus isn’t another sign of Ohio becoming increasingly red, I don’t know what is. 

Husted, now in the Senate, is up for election in 2028, while Moreno is up for election in 2030. Interestingly enough, Ohio’s junior senator will have an election before our senior one. 

Can Ohio continue its bellwether status? While we’ve become more of a red state than others when it comes to presidential elections, its status as such a newly red state, location in the middle of the country, as well as key political figures here—including current as well as most likely future ones—makes it a state worth following as the country overall experiences a rightward shift.  

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