Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups: “We need someone strong, but he can’t even control his own party”

Our focus group tour this month took us to two destinations in Wales, to hear from longstanding Labour voters in Neath & Swansea East, and from Conservative-Labour switchers in Vale of Glamorgan.

We also visited opposite corners of London: former Conservative voters who last year defected to the Lib Dems in Sutton & Cheam or to Reform in Hornchurch & Upminster. The groups discussed Keir Starmer’s record after a year, Iran, Labour’s record in Wales, the widening appeal of Reform UK, and what they wanted from the Tories.

“We need someone strong at the head of the country, but he can’t even keep control of his own party”

On the domestic front, there was a feeling that Labour U-turns had become a regular political theme (“they’re doing a lot of it at the moment, aren’t they?”) – and this was before the government announced welfare reform climbdown and Keir Starmer renounced his “island of strangers” speech. The reversal over an inquiry into grooming gangs had followed the shift on the winter fuel allowance, giving some an impression of weakness and unreliability that undermined trust and Starmer’s credibility more broadly: “I don’t think he’s a strong leader. We need somebody strong at the head of our country to go head-to-head with Trump, but he can’t even keep control of his own party;” “When he backtracks on things, it doesn’t say integrity, does it? If he does it on that, what’s he going to do on other policies? When he makes hard decisions and gets challenged, he just seems to flip;” “Sometimes when there are difficult decisions, you’re not going to be a favourite person. But I feel there is a lot of popularity-vote behaviour. It matters even more than usual, because with all the military threats, if we suddenly have to kick into war, I’m not that confident the right decisions will be made.”

“There’s no noticeable change that says ‘Labour’s in, this has happened’”

A year on from the general election campaign, the Labour voters in our groups tended to lean towards giving the government the benefit of the doubt – though this was often more in hope than expectation.

While they often credited Starmer and Labour with good intentions – and some mentioned a higher minimum wage or the inquiry into maternity services – most struggled to identify signs that things were generally moving in the right direction: “It’s early days, isn’t it? But it doesn’t show any signs of anything improving;” “I like him, but he’s got such a monumental task that I don’t think we’ll see much change for many years because everything takes so long;” “I was optimistic about what he could achieve and I’m still edging on the benefit of the doubt because of the historical principles of the Labour party, but I’m not seeing a huge difference. There’s no noticeable change that says, ‘Labour’s in, this has happened’;” “‘Where are the next cuts going to be?’ That’s what I keep thinking;” “If there were little positive changes you would think, OK, in four or five years something bigger might come along. But we’re not really seeing any of that.”

“We’re not invited into the tent”

Many in our groups saw the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a necessary evil (“how else would you stop them”), though a few were sceptical (“the only thing that worries me is that when it was Iraq, it all got proved that it wasn’t true. We get told so many lies”). Most recoiled from the idea of British involvement (“there could be repercussions here. Everyone’s going to be paranoid again, going into London”), but there was also a feeling that the British view was neither here nor there: “We’re passengers. Netanyahu and America or Trump are clearly driving. We’re pretending that we’re aligned with them, but we’re not invited into the tent.” Some thought Keir Starmer was at the most ambivalent US action (“being a lawyer before anything, I really think that deep down he’s not happy with what’s going on”) but again, his view was probably irrelevant: “Why would Israel or Iran pay any attention to Keir Starmer?”

“They can half-ass it because they know they’re probably going to get back in anyway”

In Wales, some had noticed the new infrastructure spending announced by Rachel Reeves but doubted they would see any benefit: “It will get as far as Cardiff and then it’ll stop. We may as well be on a different planet.” There was a widespread feeling that public services are worse in Wales than in England. Some felt this was because Labour took Wales for granted (“They can half-ass it because they know they’re probably going to get back in anyway”) or because of the administrative costs of devolution (“as a teacher I’m getting roughly £3,000 per pupil. They get £4,500 in England. There’s multiple layers of bureaucracy and it’s taken off our kids. And we’ve got some of the worst waiting times as well;” “they spent billions of pounds to change all the streets to 20mph, and now they’re changing it back again. What a waste of money;” “a huge chunk of the money that comes from Westminster goes straight into our politicians’ pockets”).

However, many blamed Westminster rather than Labour or the Welsh government (except for failing to argue strongly enough for more funding): “All the schools in the Vale of Glamorgan are in deficit and that is through no fault of their own, it’s lack of funding, and that funding comes from the Welsh Government and ultimately from Westminster;” “They should have a stronger team. I don’t think we’re shouting enough about Wales and what we need.” For some of these voters, despite the party running Wales since devolution in 1998, “Labour just haven’t had long enough to really put their stamp on things. There was only so much that Welsh Labour could do when the main government was run by the Tories. And obviously funding wouldn’t have been as great from a Tory government.”

 “Tone it down. You’ve got my attention now. What is it you’re going to do?”

 Some therefore expected Labour to keep control of Wales despite their record, if only because they could not imagine a viable alternative. However, several did see foresee a strong challenge from Reform UK in the Senedd elections, often adding that they or people they knew had recently started to take more of an interest in the party: “I never thought I would but I’m sort of coming round to it. It’s just more decisive.”

Some said that while the party had piqued their interest, Reform would have to do more to win their support, especially when it came to having credible policies on a broad front and dispelling any impression of extremism: “I’m more interested in the economy and growth. There’s not enough information about what they would do in those areas. I’ve never seen a boat full of illegal immigrants in Swansea Bay. When I hear them hammering on about immigration it switches me off and I don’t really listen to the rest;” “The ‘Reform’ title suggests that they’re looking to reform the way the political structure works in the UK – drain the swamp, get rid of the bureaucracy, the people who are sucking all the resource out. That would be massively appealing to me;” “Now is a perfect time for them to stop going on in that Trumpian way, be a bit more grown up, tone it down. You’ve got my attention now. Win me over. What is it you’re going to do?”

“He’ll be taking donkeys and canaries down next”

Even those who were interested in Reform were doubtful about Nigel Farage’s policies on coal and steel. Few thought the pledge to revive the Port Talbot steelworks was realistic, however much they might wish otherwise: “It’s too late now, isn’t it. They couldn’t relight the furnace even if they wanted to. Why is he saying stupid things like that?” “It’s just playing on people’s emotions. It doesn’t help going forward.” Nor were they much impressed by the idea of reopening coalmines in Wales: “This generation wouldn’t go down the mines. They all want to be influencers on TikTok. They’ll say, ‘we can’t get a signal down there’;” “When we’re moving away from fossil fuels, why would you possibly want to do that?” “He’ll be taking donkeys and canaries down next.”

Further afield, some of our participants were cautiously positive about Reform’s policy of charging non-doms a flat £250,000 fee and distributing the proceeds to the lowest paid 10 per cent of full-time workers. The mechanics might need ironing out, but “it’s a step towards a good policy;” “currently the non-dom policy is madness. Not because I think those people pay a fair share of tax, because they don’t. But I’d rather have them pay something than just leave.”

“I used to see it as a protest vote, but now I’m starting to see it as a completely necessary vote”

Apart from immigration and tax, participants said they had heard Reform talk about issues including energy, self-sufficiency, public sector waste, policing, freedom of speech, industry, sovereignty and welfare reform. Some felt Reform offered a completely different approach from that of the established parties: “It’s not the uniparty, outsourcing things to non-governmental organisations and the civil service, and no real distinction in terms of their policy. It’s bureaucratic managerialism. We’ve not become more prosperous because of it, and I want something different from that;” “I used to see it as a protest vote, but now I’m starting to see it as a completely necessary vote.”

The party also seemed to be trying to present itself differently: “They’ve dropped the bomber jacket and put on the tweed jacket. It’s not the knuckleheads anymore. They’re putting in people who are a bit more polite and normal.” However, many remained to be convinced – notably including former Conservative voters who had switched to Labour in 2024, who often saw the party as divisive and unrealistic: “It was always an extreme thing, wasn’t it. And people aren’t seeing that side to them so much. They’re portraying themselves as not extreme;” “They’ve never been in power. He says everything you want to hear, ‘stop the immigration’. No-one else has been able to do it, what makes him think he can?” “Nigel Farage is saying he’s going to do all this but there’s no stability. He’s swapped parties before, and he could do it again. I’ve got no confidence in anything he says.”

 “I feel like there isn’t a North Star for the Conservatives”

As for the official opposition, some of our former Conservative voters had positive things to say about Kemi Badenoch: “I don’t agree with what she says a lot of the time, but I think she is a personality. People actually have an opinion about her;” “She comes across really well. She’s not frighted of saying who should be here and who shouldn’t be here. Everyone else is like, ‘ooh, human rights, you can’t say that,’ but she doesn’t seem bothered;” “I think it’s good that they’re putting more females to the front. We were just seeing those crusty old men who owned half of Staffordshire.” Few 2024 defectors categorically ruled out going back to the Tories at the next election, but most thought the party currently lacked visibility and, more importantly, purpose: “There should be North Stars for parties, and I feel like there isn’t a North Star for the Conservatives.”

When were the Conservatives at their best? What should their North Star be? “Cameron came across like he knew what he was doing. They seemed quite united, there was some strength, they weren’t backstabbing and blaming each other;” “They were measured and didn’t throw out crazy statements or pitch people against each other;” “The early Cameron era there was reasonable fiscal responsibility with a bit of grounding, a sort of genuine belief that they would tackle issues like crime and other things that were affecting people at the time;” “It would be nice if we had a party that did something, you know, conservative – productivity growth, increased prosperity, lower the burden of tax and regulation, that sort of thing, make people freer and happier that way. That case could be made but isn’t being made. It seems to fall to the Conservatives because I don’t think anyone else would make that case.”

“If they turned around within a year and said, ‘we’ve got it all sorted’, why would you trust them?”

Participants debated how quickly the Tories should be offering new policies: “She wants to build a foundation, but politics is moving so fast there isn’t time;” “If they turned around within a year and said, ‘we’ve got it all sorted’, why would you trust them?” What they could do, however, is “be reflecting on what they did and telling people, ‘We got that wrong but now we’re going to do this and try to fix it. We’ve seen where that went wrong, and this is how we’re going to change it.”

As for the Liberal Democrats, even their new voters could recall hearing nothing from the party nationally, or any policy ideas from the election, or (in many cases) the name of the leader. In most cases they had voted on the basis of the party’s local record, or as the main local alternative to the Tories.

“He did well but it turned out he was a massive swindler”

 With Wimbledon underway, if Keir Starmer were a tennis player from any era, which tennis player would he be? “The Scottish fella. Quite pleasant, nondescript. Only got there because everyone else was injured;” “Tim Henman. A bit bland. Out in the second round every year;” “Pete Sampras. Not much going on apart from his tennis, and that’s how I feel about Keir Starmer.”

 

Nigel Farage? “John McEnroe. Abrasive, loud, doesn’t like authority, always arguing with the umpire. Makes a lot of noise, but entertaining;” “Boris Becker. Bit of a sleazeball. Did well but then it turned out he was a massive swindler;” “Who was that guy who used to smoke? Ilie Nastase. Real character, real showman. He wasn’t very good, though;” “That Nick Kyrgios. Throws his bat around and gets angry but doesn’t actually win anything.”

What about Kemi Badenoch? “Emma Raducanu. She turned up once, but I haven’t heard anything since;” “Serena Williams. She’s quite good, quite feisty;” “Billie Jean King. She was upfront and said what she wanted;” “Someone unseeded;” “The ball girl;” “She’s doing the strawberries.”

And Ed Davey? “Draper. The underdog. A bit low-level but maybe on his way up.”

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