The NC Threat-Free Index and Immunity Update for the Week Ending November 29

Image source: ABC 11 News story Nov. 27 about Black Friday shoppers this year. By the face of things — i.e., all the faces — people are willingly crowding in public and preferring to live as normal. Naturally, such a counterfactual to media messaging requires a redirection, so the establishment press decided to use the interest of people in Christmas shopping during the Christmas season as “proof” that they “don’t care” about inflation and “can afford it just fine,” no matter what they say.

This past week about 99.8% of people in NC were estimated to pose no threat of passing along Covid-19 to anyone, and eight out of nine (88.9%) adult North Carolinians are estimated to have either vaccine-induced or natural immunity.

Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending November 29. All of the statistics generated for the NC Threat-Free Index are based on numbers provided by government sources. This link gives a detailed explanation of how each statistic is derived. You can compare them with the U.S. Threat-Free Index here.

  • As of November 22, there were 1,489,392 North Carolinians presumed to be recovered from Covid-19.
  • Active cases comprised just 1.6% of NC’s total case count. A case of Covid-19 isn’t a permanent infection. Only someone with an active case of the virus can conceivably transmit it to you. The total case count given banner headlines comprises active cases, the very large proportion of people who have recovered, and the very small proportion of people who have died with Covid-19.
  • Active cases represented just over 0.2% (two-tenths of one percent) of NC’s population. Active cases are lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 minus recoveries and deaths.
  • Also, 36 out of every 37 (97.2%) of NC’s total cases were recovered. People who have recovered from Covid-19 are no longer infectious. More importantly, a large and growing body of empirical research (“science and data”) shows that they have acquired persistentlong-lasting, and robust natural immunity to Covid-19 — immunity that is stronger against Covid-19 and its variants than even that enjoyed by those who are fully vaccinated.
  • Only 0.18% of people in NC had died with Covid-19. This statistic must be phrased in that manner (“with,” not “from”) because of the lack of clarity over the actual cause of death and because of the research finding as well as DHHS and the CDC admitting that a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths were “not related to Covid-19.”
  • All things considered, nearly 99.8% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along Covid-19 to anyone. This estimate will fluctuate based on relative growth in lab-confirmed cases vs. recoveries.

Herd immunity, reinfections, and post-vaccination infections

For the week ending November 29:

  • Now eight out of nine (88.9%adult North Carolinians are estimated to have some immunity, whether vaccine-induced immunity or natural immunity, the stronger and more durable immunity, to Covid-19. Adults are the ones most at risk of losing their jobs, access to government services, ability to travel, ability to buy groceries, etc., for not being vaccinated even though the ostensible public interest is in immunity. 
  • The total population of North Carolina is at 83.2% immunity. These estimates are based on DHHS case numbers, CDC estimates of actual infections, DHHS estimates of current vaccinations, and the formula outlined here.
  • As of November 29, there had been 12,984 reinfections for those with prior lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19, and the estimated reinfection rate was over 0.8%. For reasons discussed here, the actual reinfection rate is likely much lower than the estimated rate.
  • As of November 6, per the most recent update from DHHS (there was no update provided this week), there had been 97,160 post-vaccination infections, and the estimated post-vaccination infection rate was over 1.7%. Given how strictly DHHS defines a “post-vaccination infection” — someone must be at least two weeks past receiving the second of two injections; anyone with only one injection or within two weeks of receiving the second “counts” as an unvaccinated case of Covid — the actual post-vaccination infection rate could be much higher than the estimated rate.
  • Also as of November 6, 23% of Covid-19 cases in North Carolina were to people considered fully vaccinated.
  • As of November 29, only one in nine (11.1%) adult North Carolinians were estimated to have neither vaccine-induced nor natural immunity.

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Author: Jon Sanders


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