Current National Political Landscape

If the 2024 election were held today and it was a Blumpf vs. Joe Biden rematch, this is how it would likely play out based on current polling and the Virginia results.

Newsweek:

“That poll was conducted among 600 likely voters in each of the five states from November 11 to 16 and had a margin of error of four percent.

It found that Trump led Biden by 12 points in Michigan, 10 points in Wisconsin and six points in Pennsylvania.

Trump won those three states in 2016 by less than one percent in each case, securing him victory.

The former president also led Biden by eight percent in Arizona and three percent in Georgia—both states that Trump won in 2016 and that Biden successfully flipped last year. …”

Sounds about right.

It is likely to get worse over the next year too because the president’s party almost always loses ground in the year out from the midterms. Biden should be bouncing after BIF.

Trump’s approval vs. disapproval rating held constant throughout his entire presidency and hasn’t really changed in his post-presidency. No one really changed their mind about Blumpf after 2018. He returned to the 52% to 54% disapproval range through COVID and the economic collapse. He dropped after the “January 6th insurrection” only to bounce back within a month. He never faded.

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This could change over 2023 and 2024 and could improve somewhat for Joe Biden. Maybe it doesn’t though and we are stuck with gridlock, inflation and malaise for years and Joe doesn’t bounce back. Maybe most people have now made up their minds about him like Trump.

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Joe Biden is settling in the same 52% to 54% disapproval range.

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Author: Hunter Wallace


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