James Johnson is co-founder of JL Partners. He was the Senior Opinion Research and Strategy Adviser to Theresa May as Prime Minister, 2016-2019.
The U.S. presidential race is stagnant. Though there has been some excitement about Joe Biden closing the gap on Donald Trump in recent polling, all shifts are well within the margin of error. In our latest polling for DailyMail.com, Trump retains a 4-point lead over Joe Biden with no change on our December poll.
Perceptions of Biden have improved after his State of the Union address last month, but largely amongst those who were already positively predisposed towards him. If the election took place tomorrow, Trump would win. Because the Republican vote is more efficiently distributed than that of Democrats, this would still be the case even with a large polling error.
With little shifting the dial, what could change the picture come November? Here are some wildcards to be aware of that might come into play and change the conversation. I have given each a probability rating (the chance it will happen) and an impact rating (how much it will impact the election’s outcome).
Trump conviction
Probability rating: 7/10
Impact rating: 2/10
Next Monday is the start of The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump, the criminal trial in which he is charged with thirty-four counts of falsifying business records linked to paying hush money to Stormy Daniels, the pornographic film actress.
Trump will be mandated to be in the courtroom four days a week. If the case leads to conviction, it technically carries a maximum sentence of 136 years, but the working assumption in legal circles is it is unlikely to carry significant jail time. Though some have questioned the evidence against Trump, there is a reasonable chance – considering the jury pool and the charges – that Trump is convicted.
The impact of this should not be overstated. The court case is the story that almost no one is talking about. In interviews I have done with swing voters across the country, I have almost always had to prompt for it. People have priced the case – and even the prospect of a conviction – into their view of Trump. Others are bored of the media coverage.
Polling shows most see the case as politically motivated even if they believe Trump is guilty.Trump is helped by the New York case coming first. It is the case which has had its legitimacy questioned the most, even by Democrats. If anything, the exposure Trump receives in the courtroom might fire up his base without putting off other voters.
There are three other cases: classified documents, Georgia election fraud, and federal election fraud. A conviction in these cases could have a bigger impact. But they now look more likely than ever to be delayed. The Supreme Court first needs to hear and then rule on whether Trump has immunity in the charges considering he was President at the time.
There is a state appeal court ruling on the District Attorney in Georgia pending, and it is in the judges’ hands whether to allow a trial before the election or not, which is slowing the classified documents case.
Biden fall
Probability rating: 6/10
Impact rating: 6/10
What if Biden falls over? It sounds silly, and a little unfair, but with such public scrutiny and concern about his age, it is not implausible. A bad, public fall caught on camera is probably more likely than not. If Biden suffered genuine health issues as a result, then the consequences could be huge. This is not unrealistic. Joe Lieberman, the ex-Senator, just one year older than the 81-year-old Biden, died last month from complications after a domestic fall. He was healthy and active: I was on TV with him just a week before his death.
If it is a mild fall, it has happened before and will not have a large impact. But do not underestimate the toxicity of Biden’s age with the American public. Eight in ten believe he will be too old to be President at the end of his next term. Seven in ten think he is already too old to be serving now. Despite having achieved record domestic legislation, most swing voters do not think Biden has achieved a thing.
Why? Because, again according to our polling, they believe he is “old”, “incompetent”, and “weak”. If they do not believe the messenger, they will not believe the message. The more his age is at the forefront of voters’ minds come November, the worse it is for Biden.
Debate
Probability rating: 8/10
Impact rating: 7/10
Though no side has yet committed to them, it is likely that Biden and Trump will end up debating. One candidate will be feeling down and out by that point, so will want the moment to stage a fight-back. The other – especially with egos as large as these two men – will not want to be called frit. One of the more underestimated aspects of the 2020 campaign was the importance of the first TV debate. In this, Trump showcased the worst aspects of himself to the American public: everything voters hesitated on the most about him – aggressiveness, rudeness, interruptions, the drama – was on display. Immediately after, Trump’s numbers declined.
Fast-forward to April 2024 and memories of the first Trump administration generally focus around better economic times rather than the drama. Come to a debate, though much of the expectation will be that Biden could under-perform due to his mental acuity, it is probably Trump who has the most to lose if he once more shows off the aspects people like least about him.
Third-party over-performance
Probability rating: 6/10
Impact rating: 8/10
Robert F Kennedy Jr, the main third-party candidate, is not on the ballot in every state yet, which reduces the probability of him doing particularly well. But if he makes it on – and his new vice-presidential candidate is probably the wealthiest vice presidential candidate since Nelson Rockefeller, helping him in securing the funding to do so – then he may have an impact. Our polling finds he is currently taking 9 per cent of Biden’s 2020 vote and 5 per cent of Trump’s. At the moment a strong third party showing – along with the fact that the other two main candidates standing lean left in Cornel West and Jill Stein – hurts Biden more than it does Trump.
Abortion ad drop
Probability rating: 10/10
Impact rating: 9/10
The biggest thing that will change between now and November is what advertising people see. This is not like political advertising in the UK. US campaigns can spend on TV ads, and election season has wall-to-wall coverage. Biden and Trump are amassing war chests to do just that. So far, Biden’s is twice as large as Trump’s.
One almost certain thing is that the Biden campaign will launch a major advertising blitz on the issue of abortion. After the overturning of Roe V Wade in 2022, numerous states have voted to enshrine abortion rights in their constitution and punish politicians who stand for the harshest term limits. Most Americans do not believe abortion should be fully outlawed, and also believe a six-week ban is too draconian.
This Monday, Trump distanced himself from a federal abortion ban has negated some of the potential damage, but he still boasts of appointing the Supreme Court justices that made the judgement. Biden ad reservations are already in the millions for October. Add in the fact abortion is on the ballot as a constitutional right in Arizona, Nevada and Florida, and that advert spending becomes even more significant. Biden’s best chance – and the 2024’s biggest wildcard – is the pro-abortion ad drop in October.
The post James Johnson: Five wildcards that may yet swing the Presidential election for Biden or Trump appeared first on Conservative Home.
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Author: James Johnson
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