You know, I hate to brag or draw attention to myself, just not really my style.
But last week we went 8-3 to run our season record to 22-10 against the spread, for a 69% winning percentage through the first three weeks of the college football season. (Insert requisite nice here.)
As if that weren’t enough, we’re also at 66% winners on Outkick Six Pack of NFL picks.
To be succinct, we are white hot, scorching, en fuego, if we were playing the old NBA Jams game, we’d be on fire, draining jumpers from everywhere.
Which is why the only thing we can do to get hotter is finally post the mythical perfect weekend. That’s the goal right now. So let’s dive right in and hit 11-0 this weekend. Get your picks in now and, as always, #respectthepicks, #shootersshoot, and get rich, kids.
Notre Dame +6.5 vs. Wisconsin and the under 46.5
I know I haven’t been a big believer in Notre Dame this year, but I feel like this game, in Chicago, in what has the makings of an absolutely incredible experience — I’d love to be here for this one myself — will turn into a brutal defensive slugfest.
If I’m right about that then I like the Irish chances to keep this one inside of a touchdown.
This game has 21-17 written all over it and when that happens, guess what, you’ll have two winning tickets to cash from a fabulous game in Chicago. And since you’ll have the points, you won’t even need to care who wins. (But it will be Notre Dame, for the record).
Georgia at Vanderbilt +35.5
This is where we’ll be for the Outkick bus tour this weekend.
We’re going to be set up right beside the stadium, which means if you’re a Georgia or Vandy fan, or just someone in Nashville who wants to come hang out, you won’t be able to miss us.
We’ll have the Outkick Tailgate show streaming live from 9-12 eastern, that’s 8-11 am central on site, and it should be a fabulous way to start off your Saturday.
The game, however, will not be fabulous.
And while I feel nervous about taking Vanderbilt here given the total and complete mismatch, the Commodores have actually played Georgia decent over the past seven years. And by “decent” I mean they haven’t lost by over 35 points since 2012. And they haven’t lost by over 35 points in Nashville since 1993.
Now I know the crowd will be majority Georgia Bulldog fans on Saturday in Nashville, but I feel like Kirby Smart will take it easy on the Commodores in the second half and Vandy will find a way, like South Carolina did last week, to sneak in a backdoor cover.
This feels like a 42-10 Bulldog waltz.
Which won’t be a great game, but it will be a great cover.
Arkansas +5.5 vs. Texas A&M and the under 48
This rivalry has been one of the wildest games in college football over the past several years as typically A&M has devised different brutal ways to break Razorback fan hearts every single way imaginable in the midst of a seven year consecutive win streak in Jerry World.
Most of these games have been relatively high scoring, but I think this game will be the exception and I actually like the Razorback chances to pull off an outright upset here.
Based on what I’ve seen this season from both teams, it just really feels like this should be a pick’em. So I think you’re getting very good value on the Razorbacks here. Load up on the Hogs and also enjoy the under play. Then come Saturday in Jerry World you’ll have yourself a double win.
Clemson at NC State +9.5
I don’t think this Clemson team, based on their offense, deserves to be favored by nearly ten points over anyone on the road right now.
In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if the Wolfpack pulled off the outright win here in this game either.
I know, I know, NC State hasn’t beaten Clemson since 2011 and most of these games haven’t been particularly close. (Although it’s worth noting that the games three and four meetings ago were decided by a single touchdown.)
I think that’s the same kind of margin we’ll see Saturday in Raleigh.
Give me the Wolfpack as a howling underdog.
Liberty -6 at Syracuse
Last year Liberty handled Syracuse by 17 points in Lynchburg, Virginia and I think Hugh Freeze’s team takes care of business on the road this year.
Because this is an ACC audition game for Hugh Freeze.
I really think there’s a chance Florida State cans Mike Norvell at the end of the season and goes all in on Freeze. So notching an impressive ACC win here would be a nice feather in Freeze’s resume cap, especially since Liberty only has two power five teams on the schedule this year.
I think Freeze gets it a double digit win against Syracuse on Saturday and we all enjoy a nice cover in the process.
Tennessee +20.5 at Florida
I’ve given up on Tennessee ever beating Florida, Georgia or Alabama again in football. It’s just easier on my health that way. But I haven’t given up on betting on the Vols when I think there’s good value on them. And I think the Vols are getting the Gators in a decent spot, which is why I’m backing them as big road underdogs.
Florida just went toe-to-toe with Alabama in one of the biggest games in the Swamp in years and they don’t even consider Tennessee to be rivals any more. Why should they? Tennessee is 1-15 in their last 16 games against the Gators.
(Imagine how much of an asshole I’d be if my teams ever won any games. I’d be insufferable.)
So what reason is there to expect this game to be remotely close? The Vol offense will be able to score some points on Saturday because I don’t think the Gator defense is that great.
While I’m nervous that AR 15 will return from his mysterious “injury” last weekend and I fully expect for him to throw for 200 and run for 200 too, this feels like a 38-24 style game to me.
Which is why I’m tempted to take the over too, but instead I’ll settle on a Vol cover.
Kentucky at South Carolina, the under 48.5
The Wildcats were fortunate to escape with a win against Chattanooga last weekend and South Carolina took a drubbing on the road at Georgia.
So what happens in Columbia on Saturday? I think we see a defensive struggle, primarily because I’m not really sold on either of these team’s offenses.
As a result both coaches rely on their defenses and take the air out of the ball, especially Mark Stoops, who doesn’t want his offense to give this game away.
The final score? The Wildcats win 21-20 on the road and you cash an under ticket.
Nebraska at Michigan State -4.5
Every now and then you can ride a team that Vegas disrespects to victory after victory. I feel like the Spartans are that team for me this year.
I know Nebraska played pretty decent last week at Oklahoma, but Michigan State walloped Miami on the road. And I feel like they’re going to keep riding that momentum this week at home as a small favorite.
I’m just not sold on Adrian Martinez being able to have consistent success in this Scott Frost offense and I feel like Sparty pulls away late for a double digit win, call it 31-21 Spartans.
Which will give us yet another cover.
UCLA at Stanford, the over 58.5
UCLA’s defense is still a work in progress and I like the growth I’ve seen from the Stanford offense since an awful debut against Kansas State.
What’s the result of that combination?
I think there’s a good shot both teams go for thirty or more.
If that happens, it will be similar to three of the last four games between these two teams. 48-47, 49-42, and 58-34 are three of the four scores in this game since Chip Kelly took over the Bruins. The only game that went under the total from this year was 2019 when Stanford was held to 16 points.
I don’t see that happening to either team this year.
So hop on the board the over train and ride it to victory.
There you have it boys and girls that gets us to a robust 11-0.
The post Outkick’s College Football Gambling Picks For Week 4 2021 appeared first on OutKick.
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Author: Clay Travis
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