MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, September 21, 2021

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We looked to be off to a great start with the Pirates yesterday, they scored five unanswered runs… Before the Reds scored nine unanswered and turned our day into a 1-2 day. Onto Tuesday.

Twins vs. Cubs

The Cubs don’t do a lot of things great right now, and neither do the Twins. What the Cubs do have going for them today is the opposing pitcher that they’re facing. Today, the Twins send Griffin Jax to the mound. He’s allowed 11 earned runs over his last 15 innings and 32 earned over his last 42 innings. Meaning that there should be runs scored tonight by the Cubbies. With them only being posted at four runs, and the Twins having a terrible bullpen, not much analysis is needed here. Play the Cubs over 4 at -114. I also like the Cubs to win and game over 7.5 runs at +220.

Mets vs. Red Sox

If you’ve read any of these posts before, you’re probably familiar with the fact that I love Marcus Stroman. Stroman is having a very nice campaign with a sub-3 ERA and has posted a quality start in five of his last six starts. Tonight, he faces a Red Sox team fighting to find a way into the playoffs, but luckily for the Mets, they face a starter in Eduardo Rodriguez who has a 5.00 ERA. As a home pitcher, Rodriguez’s ERA balloons up to 6.32. At home, he’s allowed, on average, more than one runner on base per inning. Eventually, with that much traffic, you’re going to run into trouble. In his last two home starts, he only went 3.2 innings in both of them and allowed six runs in one and five in another. Play the Mets at +116.

Rangers vs. Yankees

The Yankees probably will not be making the playoffs unless a miracle happens in the next few weeks. There is a reason for optimism with next season though at the hands of young-ish starter Jordan Montgomery. With just a 3.25 home ERA, Montgomery has a lot of promise when he takes the ball in New York. Duane Dunning has had one start against the Yankees this season, during that start, he went 6.0 innings and allowed no runs and just four hits. The danger of tonight’s game is that during his road performances, he has a 6.65 ERA. I’m going to play the under on the game though based on his success against Yankee hitters, albeit in a small sample size, and Montgomery’s talent. Play under 8 at -105.

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Author: David Troy


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