Luke Tryl is Director of More in Common. He is a former director of the New Schools Network, director of Strategy at Ofsted, and a former special adviser.
To find the last time the Conservative Party didn’t hold a single seat in inner London you have to go back not just to the turn of the 20th Century, but to before the passage of the Second Reform Act of 1867.
But new More in Common polling shows that may well be the situation the party finds itself in after the next election. Seats such as Chelsea and Fulham and the Cities of London and Westminster currently look set to slip out of the blue column, while other formerly solid Home Counties seats like Maidenhead and Tunbridge Wells are also at risk.
Earlier this month, More in Common polled a group of 39 seats in the so-called Blue Wall: areas of the country that have traditionally voted Conservative but have shifted against the party in recent elections.
These are areas which tend to be more Remain-voting than the rest of the country, where people have voted Tory for economic rather than social reasons, and where most voters were more comfortable with Cameronism than Johnsonism.
In these former heartlands, we find the share of the Conservative vote has fallen from over half (51 per cent) in 2019 to under a third (32 per cent) today, while Labour’s vote share has risen from a fifth (20 per cent) to a third (33 per cent).
In some ways, it might not seem newsworthy to see another poll showing the Tories hurtling towards landslide defeat.
But beyond the bleak headline for the Conservatives, there are potential lessons to be learned that could help the Tories mitigate some losses and recover much quicker. Because we also find that while Rishi Sunak’s approval is underwater in the Blue Wall, he performs better there than he does nationally – and certainly better than in the Red Wall where Sunak’s style of government has failed to impress.
So, what does our polling suggest the route back in the Blue Wall looks like?
The Conservatives need first to address a real perception problem. Voters in these seats are twice as likely to say they associate the words ‘divided’ and ‘uncaring’ with the Tories than with Labour. In focus groups in these areas, particularly in the wake of Suella Braverman’s comments last year, it was clear that the Tories were once again suffering from a ‘nasty party’ problem.
The polling also suggests the Tories could be losing support because they are perceived to have turned too far to the right. A significant minority of Blue Wall voters (41 per cent) consider the Conservative Party to be ‘too right wing’ compared to their personal politics. This is a larger proportion than the 32 per cent of Blue Wall voters who think the Labour Party is too left wing.
What’s more, Blue Wall voters are more likely than voters nationally to say the Tory party is more right wing than their personal politics.
Could immigration be an area where the Conservatives are getting the balance wrong? Perhaps. It is a myth that Blue Wall voters are pro-open borders and don’t want more controls on immigration; this poll found these voters to be four times more likely to say the Government should be doing more rather than less to lower immigration.
However, the premium these voters place on controlling immigration, when weighed up against other priorities, is lower than in other parts of the country. Asked about their willingness to trade off lower immigration for lower growth, Blue Wall voters are twice as likely to say the government should focus on ensuring we have a workforce for economic growth, even if it means less focus on lowering immigration.
Blue Wall voters want to see a balanced approach on immigration, one that both meets concerns about control and their desire for a growing economy.
But legal migration is only one part of the picture. As the Rwanda Bill heads into parliamentary ping-pong, how the Conservative’s handle ‘what comes next’ will also weigh on their fortunes in the Blue Wall.
As with the rest of the country, a plurality of Blue Wall voters support the Rwanda Policy, but not with great enthusiasm. Out of eight potential options tested to reduce channel crossings, the Rwanda Plan comes seventh. Strikingly, Blue Wall voters are twice as likely to say the plan will be a waste than a good use of taxpayers money.
Blue Wall voters are also unlikely to support the absolutism of the Bill. They want to see a whole range of exemptions for ‘genuine refugees’, ‘women fleeing persecution’, ‘children’, and ‘victims of modern slavery’.
For these voters, the Government needs to do more to demonstrate there will be a way for those in genuine need to get to the UK. One such path is a ‘safe routes’ policy, something supported 58 per cent to 19 per cent by Blue Wall voters. Blue Wall voters want both compassion and control, but at the moment it is possible the Government is not doing enough on the former.
The real risk however to the Conservative prospects in the Blue Wall might not be the passage of the Bill itself, but what comes after it – if it still doesn’t stop the boats. Our polling reveals very clearly that Blue Wall voters are institutionalists; to give just one example, while the Tory Party has a net approval of minus 26 and Labour minus four, the BBC sits at plus 23 approval with these voters.
Our legal institutions, from the Supreme Court to the European Court of Human Rights, also attract broad support in the Blue Wall. These voters support remaining in the ECHR by 55 to 28 per cent. Even when asked if leaving the Court would be a price worth paying to implement the Rwanda Plan, only 36 percent of Blue Wall agree – significantly below the Conservative’s 2019 result with this group.
All of which is to say that if the Conservatives flirt with leaving the ECHR, they could find themselves in even more trouble with this important part of their coalition. Avoiding Conservative collapse in the Blue Wall means talking more about conserving Britain’s institutions, not pledging to rip them up.
But more than that, they need to double down on the economy. The economy is the issue Blue Wall voters care most about, and it’s why they’ve voted Conservative time and time again. If there is an ideal audience for the ‘stick with the plan’ message, it is this group.
The challenge for the Tories is convincing them to do so will require appearing less divided, distracted and destructive than they have so far managed this Parliament, never mind the past week.
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Author: Luke Tryl
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